U.S. birth rate has just a 30% chance of rising in 2025

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U.S. birth rate has just a 30% chance of rising in 2025 originally appeared on TheStreet.

As the fertility rate in the U.S. continues its historic decline, an increasing proportion of traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket are betting it will remain that way for some time.

The new market, "Will the U.S. fertility rate go up in Q1 2025?" is currently pricing a 30% chance of the fertility rate being higher, which is down 11% from the previous pricing on the platform. The counter bet — that the fertility rate will decline further — is trading at 71 cents.

Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market that allows users to stake real money on real-world outcomes — from politics and sports to science and economics.

The basis for trading on Polymarket is to acquire shares in outcomes that a user believes will occur, as opposed to traditional investing. If the user is correct, they collect a payment when the market settles.

US birth rates declined 54.5% from 1960 to 2022

The OECD reports that fertility rates in wealthy countries fell drastically to 1.5 births per woman in 2022, down from 3.3 in 1960, due to economic pressures and changing family dynamics, as per Reuters.

This market settling and like betting are taking place during an extended decline in rates of U.S. births, driven here before by uncertainty about the economy, learning changes in family structures, and currently the swift onset of job loss associated with AI — a precursor of a Social Reset noted by financial influencers like Robert Kiyosaki.

According to a Pew Research study, millennials and Gen Z now plan to have fewer children, reducing their average from 2.3 children to between 1.5 and 1.9 children, according to the research.

High costs, including childcare, housing, and education, as well as career pressures, delayed milestones, and job uncertainty, which have been attributed to AI, are blamed, according to The New York Post.

Story ContinuesThe Polymarket wager has received over 400,000 views on the market's X post as of June 20, highlighting just how much attention the "baby bust" is beginning to attract.

U.S. birth rate has just a 30% chance of rising in 2025 first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 19, 2025

This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 19, 2025, where it first appeared.

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