The on-chain data of XRP explains why $3 is still out of reach.

Ripple (XRP) has been moving sideways in a narrow zone from 2.05 to 2.33 dollars for the past 30 days, while the $3 mark remains a distant goal. Some key data explains why the price is trapped in a state of consolidation, including a fall in network activity on the XRP Ledger, a decrease in open interest (OI), and weak technical signals.

Decline in network activity on the XRP Ledger

The XRP Ledger has seen a significant fall in network activity over the past 6 months. On-chain data from Glassnode shows that the number of new addresses created daily on the network has sharply decreased compared to the peak of 15,823 addresses on January 16, 2025. On Thursday, only 3,500 new addresses were created.

! Number of new XRP addresses | Source: GlassnodeSimilarly, the number of (DAA) daily active addresses on the network has also plummeted, from a three-month peak of 577,000 on Saturday to 34,360 on Thursday. This indicates a decline in interest or a lack of confidence in XRP's short-term prospects.

The daily activity address of XRP | Source: GlassnodeAccording to historical data, a decrease in network activity often signals an upcoming period of price stagnation or fall, as low trading volume reduces liquidity and buying momentum.

OI fall reflects the stagnation of XRP price

According to data from CoinGlass, the fact that XRP cannot reach the $3 mark is further supported by the falling OI.

The chart below shows that XRP OI has fallen by 30%, from $5.53 billion to $3.89 billion, indicating that investors are closing positions with the expectation that prices will continue to fall.

OI XRP | Source: CoinGlassIn the past, sharp declines in OI have often occurred before price drops of XRP. For example, the current scenario is similar to the price drop in January, falling 53% from a multi-year high of $3.4 in January to a multi-month low of $1.61 on April 7.

XRP price is being trapped by the moving averages

Data from TradingView shows that the price is trapped below the important resistance zone from $2.22 to $2.4 – where all the main simple moving averages (SMA) are converging.

If the bulls cannot push the price above the SMA lines, XRP may continue to consolidate below these trend lines for the next few weeks. In the last two instances when the price broke below these trend lines, it went sideways for 30 and 65 days, then fell deeper before breaking out upwards, as shown in the chart below.

! XRP XRP Price Chart Daily | Source: TradingView"The XRP price is still struggling with the $2.25 threshold. As long as this level remains resistance, the possibility of a scan to the lower zones will increase: $2.01, $1.9, even $1.55 remains in the scenario," XRP trader and analyst, CasiTrades, said in a post on X on Wednesday.

This aligns with the descending triangle pattern, which indicates a potential fall of 45% to the zone of 1.2 dollars if the support at 2 dollars is broken.

Weekly XRP price chart | Source: TradingViewThe RSI index has fallen to 51 from an overbought state of 81 on January 20, indicating that the bearish momentum is increasing.

On the contrary, XRP maintaining a consolidation state for 200 days below the 3 dollar mark could be a precursor to a strong rally up to 10 dollars, similar to the powerful breakout that occurred in 2017.

Minh Anh