TRON: The $0.274 zone is crucial – Do the bulls have enough strength to breakout?

At the beginning of June, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of TRON (TRX) surged to a level of 4.74 – the highest in several months. This figure reflects strong take profit behavior, particularly from long term holders (LTH) who bought in around the $0.0566 mark.

As of the time of writing, TRX is trading around $0.272, equivalent to a profit of 374% for this group of investors – those who have held TRX tokens for more than 18 months.

However, this is not simply an act of "dumping stock", but rather likely a portfolio adjustment or a change in strategy from the initial long term investors.

Source: CryptoQuant## TRON – Dual payment channel for retail and institutional investors

The volume of USDT transactions on the TRON network continues to increase, revealing a clear differentiation between two groups of users.

Specifically, retail users have dominated in terms of the number of transactions, with over 23 million transactions valued between $100 and $1,000. Meanwhile, large organizations have dominated in terms of total transaction value, with the amount transferred over $1 million exceeding $215 billion since mid-2024, contributing to a total transaction volume of $610 billion.

This further consolidates TRON's position as an important infrastructure layer in the stablecoin ecosystem – serving both compact and fast transactions, while also meeting large-scale payment needs for businesses and financial institutions.

Source: CryptoQuant## Derivative data cools down – Are the bulls hesitating?

Although market sentiment is leaning towards an upward trend, derivative activity surrounding TRON is weakening.

The Long ratio dominates at 61.85%, pushing the Long/Short Ratio to 1.62. However, Open Interest decreased by 0.54% to $288.82 million, while Derivatives Volume (Derivatives Volume) fell by 38.85% to $193.86 million.

This shows that although many traders expect the price to rise, they are not yet ready for a "big bet." Momentum could return if TRX holds important psychological levels or there is breakthrough positive news.

Source: CoinGlass## Is the attention on social media "cooling down" too soon?

The Social Dominance index of TRON surged to 1.3% earlier this month but quickly dropped to only 0.51%. This reflects the initial excitement related to long term wallets and stablecoin activity that has faded.

Although on-chain data shows high levels of interaction from both retail and institutional investors, social media engagement is declining – which could weaken short-term momentum, unless TRX regains attention with major updates or a clear technical breakout.

Source: Santiment## Risk zone: TRX is sitting close to the "liquidation cluster"

At the level of $0.2746, TRX is approaching the important short liquidation cluster at $0.2742 – where many short positions are at risk. Meanwhile, high-leverage long orders ( from 50x and above ) are concentrated in the range of $0.275–$0.285. If the price successfully breaks above $0.28, this could trigger a widespread short squeeze effect.

On the contrary, if TRX breaks below the $0.265 mark, the downward momentum could plummet rapidly due to a loss of leverage balance.

Source: CoinGlass## The next developments depend on the response to the take profit behavior.

Although on-chain activity from both institutional and retail investors remains strong, the weakening of derivative data and the level of attention on social media are clouding short-term price increase expectations.

With liquidation clusters and Long positions accumulating around the $0.274 area, TRON may be preparing for a major movement.

The next direction of TRX will depend on how the market reacts to the wave of take profit at the current price level – and whether there is enough momentum to trigger a clear breakout or not.

* SOPR is an index that reflects the actual profit and loss levels of all coins being circulated on-chain.

Justin