Jupiter (JUP) price prediction: $33 million Token unlock imminent, overbought warning in an upward trend.

JUP, the native token of Jupiter, the leading decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator in the Solana ecosystem, has risen strongly by 10% over the past 24 hours and is now trading at $0.6199. JUP has risen by more than 50% over the past month, climbing from a weekly low of $0.5215 to a recent high of $0.6574, but is still 69% away from its all-time peak of $2.00 in January 2024. On-chain and derivatives data showed a surge in market activity: 24-hour spot trading volume surged by 372% to $189.8 million, derivatives volume surged by 238.5% to $393.1 million, and open interest (OI) increased by 22.5% to $202.7 million, indicating that traders are actively deploying. However, the 53.47 million JUP, worth about $33 million, will be unlocked on July 28 (1.28% of the current circulation), which could bring short-term selling pressure. On the technical side, the daily chart maintains an upward trend but the RSI is approaching the overbought zone, this article analyzes the potential impact of the unlocking event, key support and resistance levels, and long and short scenarios.

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1. The rise is rapid, on-chain & derivatives trading popularity soars The Jupiter Token (JUP) has performed well recently:

• Short-term rise: The price has surged 10% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $0.6199.
• Medium-term trend: Over the past month, JUP has accumulated a rise of more than 50%, successfully rebounding from the weekly low of $0.5215 and reaching a recent high of $0.6574.
• Historical Comparison: Despite the recent strength, the JUP price is still 69% lower than its historical high of $2.00 reached in January 2024. Market heat has significantly risen:
• Spot trading volume: Soared to $189.8 million within 24 hours, an increase of 372%, indicating a resurgence of investor interest.
• Derivatives Data: According to CoinGlass data:
  • Derivatives trading volume surged 238.5% to $393.1 million.
  • Open Interest ( OI ) rose 22.5% to $202.7 million. The rise in OI indicates that traders are actively establishing new futures positions in preparation for potential price fluctuations.

II. Hidden Concerns Emerge: $33 million JUP Token Unlock Approaches According to Tokenomist data, 53.47 million JUP tokens (valued at approximately 33 million USD at current prices) are scheduled to be unlocked on July 28.

• Unlock Scale: This unlocking amount accounts for approximately 1.28% of the current circulating supply (3 billion coins).
• Total Supply Unlock Progress: As of now, only 42% of the total supply of JUP (700 million tokens) is in Circulating Supply. Potential Impact Analysis: Token unlock events usually increase potential selling pressure in the market, especially against the backdrop of positive market sentiment and recent substantial price rises. Although not all unlocked tokens will be sold immediately, the increase in circulating supply may:

1. Slow Down Momentum.
2. Prompt some traders to choose to take profit under favorable conditions (rise before unlocking). This unlocking may become a test for the short-term rise of JUP.

3. Technical Analysis: Overbought Warning in Uptrend The daily chart of JUP depicts a clear rise trend:

• Bollinger Bands Signal: The price continues to run along the Upper Band (currently at $0.6378) of the Bollinger Bands, which is a typical feature of strong bullish momentum. The latest daily candlestick closed at $0.6207, slightly below the upper band.
• RSI Indicator: Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 65.7, approaching the Overbought Territory (usually 70+). This indicates:
  • The market has strong buying interest.
  • However, if the momentum slows down or the RSI breaks through 70 to confirm the overbought condition, it may trigger short-term profit-taking, and vigilance is required.
• Key Support/Resistance:

  • Resistance/Target: If JUP can effectively break through the recent high of $0.6574 with Strong Volume, it is expected to further attack the psychological level of $0.70. If the momentum can be sustained, the next target can be seen at $0.75.

  • Support: $0.60 - $0.58 area constitutes an important short-term support. If this area is lost, especially after the Token unlocking event, the price may retrace to the Mid-Bollinger Band vicinity (around $0.54). If it further breaks below this position, it may retest the previous accumulation zone $0.50.

    

Conclusion: The Game of Momentum and Unlocking, Key Levels Determine Short-Term Direction Jupiter (JUP), with its position as the core DEX aggregator of the Solana ecosystem and recent market enthusiasm, demonstrates strong short-term rising momentum. The surge in on-chain and derivatives data, along with the technical aspect of operating along the upper Bollinger Band, all support a bullish outlook. However, the token unlocking event worth $33 million looms like a sword of Damocles, potentially pausing the short-term rally or triggering a pullback. Traders need to closely monitor two points:

1. $0.60 - $0.58 support zone defense strength: If it stabilizes, the basis for the rising trend is still in place.
2. Breakthrough of $0.6574 previous high resistance: A volume breakout will open up upward space. The RSI approaching the Overbought zone also indicates the need to be wary of technical pullback risks. Against the backdrop of an overall increase in the activity of the Solana ecosystem, the long-term value logic of JUP remains clear, but the short-term trend will unfold in the game of market heat, unlocking selling pressure, and technical signals.