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- 🚀 ETH jumped to $4,600 this morning, up 8.69% in 24h!
Just shy of the $4,891 ATH—think it breaks through?
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Why is the Bitcoin target of $156K–168K by the end of the year likely to become a reality?
"Monthly Inflation: As Predicted" is perhaps the most positive macro headline we have seen in a while.
Moreover, this is completely in line with Bitcoin's narrow price range just below its all-time high supply.
To clarify the context, there are still 35 days until the FOMC meeting and the July CPI not only matched the June data but also slightly exceeded the market forecast of 2.8%. This is a positive factor for the interest rate cut scenario in September.
The question is whether this favorable macro context can trigger Bitcoin to break out of the consolidation phase and enter a phase of finding a new price.
The direction of Bitcoin depends on September
Historically, September has always been a difficult month to predict for Bitcoin. Only 4 out of the last 12 September months have closed positively, while the number of declining months has been predominant. This performance adds weight to this month's market situation.
But this year, everything no longer depends solely on history. September will prepare the conditions for Q4. Notably, this is the period of the largest price increase for risky assets, thanks to expectations of quantitative easing that will inject new liquidity into the market.
That is when the CPI in July was lower than expected, proving effective. Simply put, inflation is still under control, providing more "ammo" for rate cut bets. The market is currently pricing in a 94.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September FOMC.
Meanwhile, market sentiment is further bolstered by Donald Trump's comments that tariffs do not cause Inflation. Along with a 273% increase in tariff revenues in July to $25 billion, this further enhances the market's trend towards lower interest rates.
Overall, the low CPI along with record tax money is creating a favorable risk environment for September. If the Fed actually takes action, can Bitcoin leverage this liquidity flow to move into Q4?
Bitcoin in the last quarter of the year
On average, Bitcoin recorded a profit of 85.42% in Q4, confirming that this is the most positive quarter compared to Q1–3 combined.
Technically, if Bitcoin maintains support in the range of $120,000–125,000 in Q3, this creates a favorable structural foundation for a potential breakout in Q4.
In terms of modeling, a "more cautious" forecast is used for Q4 with an increase of 30–40% from the current level of Bitcoin at $120,000. The target range by the end of the year is estimated to be between $156,000 and $168,000.
The market is in a "wait and see" state, but with low CPI data, liquidity is leaning towards an increase, turning Bitcoin's current adjustment phase into a potential advantageous point for superior gains in Q4.
Minh Anh