Ripple price prediction: Whale sells 460 million XRP, falling below the 50-day moving average may dip to $2.78

Ripple (XRP) has faced heavy selling pressure, dropping 6% in a single day on August 19th, due to large holders reducing their positions by 460 million XRP in just one week. This wave of dumping occurred on the eve of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, leading to a more cautious market sentiment. Technically, XRP has fallen below the 50-day simple MA, and if it cannot quickly recover, the price may further retreat to the support level of $2.78.

Large wallet sells off 460 million XRP

(Source: Santiment)

On-chain data shows that large investors holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP collectively reduced their holdings by about 460 million tokens in the past week, indicating a conservative attitude towards the short-term market trend.

At the same time, medium-sized wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP increased their holdings by 130 million, reflecting the market's divergence regarding future trends. Historical experience shows that price trends are often highly correlated with the operational direction of large whales.

High profit margins may trigger profit taking

(Source: Santiment)

Since mid-July, over 93% of the tokens in circulation supply of XRP have been in profit, and even though the recent price has fallen, the average profit margin is still above 90%.

This persistent high level of profit means that once a bearish shock occurs in the market, it could trigger massive profit-taking, further exacerbating the selling pressure. It is worth noting that since the U.S. presidential election in November last year, the average profit margin for XRP holders has never fallen below 80%.

Technical Analysis: Break below 50-day SMA key support

(Source: Trading View)

In the past 24 hours, the XRP price has fallen below the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle pattern, the $2.95 level, and the 50-day MA.

If the price cannot return above the 50-day MA, the next key support level will be at $2.78; if it breaks below that level, the $2.60 support level may become the last line of defense.

In terms of technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below the neutral level of 50, indicating that bears are in control; the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) has entered the oversold territory, suggesting a potential technical rebound in the short term, but the overall trend remains bearish.

Macroeconomic Factors: The Market Awaits Powell's Speech

This Friday, the market focus will be on The Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting.

As XRP has already absorbed the effects of the SEC lawsuit conclusion and regulatory positives, if Powell releases hawkish signals, it may trigger further selling by high-profit holders. Conversely, if the policy tone leans towards easing, it may provide short-term support for XRP.

Conclusion

Ripple is currently facing dual pressure: on one hand, there is concentrated dumping from large wallets; on the other hand, there is the profit-taking risk brought by high profit margins. The technical indicators show that if it cannot quickly recover the 50-day SMA, the price of XRP may further drop to $2.78 or even $2.60. The short-term trend will highly depend on Powell's policy signals and changes in market risk appetite.