Ripple price prediction: SEC latency in XRP ETF approval, consolidation may continue to the key support at $2?

Ripple (XRP) has been stuck in a sideways consolidation for several weeks after a big pump in July, with prices oscillating between the $2 and $3 range. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on multiple XRP spot ETFs this week, pouring cold water on the market and temporarily suppressing long positions momentum. Although open interest in futures has fallen from its peak, it remains at historic highs, indicating that leveraged funds are still active. Moving forward, $2.5 and $2 will be critical price points for the bulls and bears showdown.

SEC delays ETF approval, short-term pump hindered

(Source: Coinglass)

The market originally expected that the XRP ETF would be approved soon, especially after the approval of Solana (SOL) spot and staking products. However, the SEC's delayed decision disrupted the momentum, causing XRP's breakout potential to temporarily cool down.

The current XRP price has not yet broken through its historical high, although the overall sentiment in the crypto market is bullish, the short-term trend of XRP appears to be cautious.

Futures open interest is high, volatility is about to increase

According to CoinGlass data, XRP futures open interest has fallen from a high of $11 billion to $8 billion, but it is still comparable to the level when XRP surged to $3.4 in January.

This means that there are still a large number of leveraged long positions in the market, and two scenarios may occur in the coming days:

1. Price drop triggers long positions liquidation, further accelerating the pullback;

2. Long positions hold key support, triggering short covering, driving a new round of pump.

Technical Analysis: $2.5 and $2 are key support levels

(Source: Trading View)

The weekly chart shows that XRP has pulled back from the resistance level of $3.42, with three out of the past four weeks closing lower. This week, the price continues to face pressure, with the first important support level at $2.5.

This price level was once an important resistance level, which turned into support after the breakout, and it may gather a large amount of liquidity. Once it falls to this area, short sellers may cover their positions or attract bargain hunters, leading to a short-term rebound.

If 2.5 dollars is broken, the next support will be 2 dollars, which is also the lower limit of the consolidation range. Unless there is a significant negative impact from the macro environment, such as the Federal Reserve canceling its rate cut plans, the probability of the price falling below 2 dollars is relatively low.

Macroeconomic Variables: The Impact of Federal Reserve Policy Cannot Be Ignored

The overall market environment for cryptocurrencies is still relatively friendly, but the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy will be the biggest uncertainty. If the number of rate cuts is reduced from two to one, it may put pressure on XRP and the overall market; conversely, if a loose expectation is maintained, it may provide a rebound opportunity for XRP.

Conclusion

XRP is currently at a critical moment of tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The SEC's delay in ETF approval has temporarily suppressed the pump, but the high leverage positions in the futures market mean that a big market movement could erupt at any time. $2.50 and $2.00 will be the key price levels determining XRP's next move, and investors should closely monitor the performance of support levels and macro policy trends.