Bitcoin vs. Ethereum’s Battle for the Iron Throne: What Will Decide?
Bitcoin is moving towards the most valuable storage position in the digital age. It is the most original digital asset and the most original OG asset in the future digital age. It has an irreplaceable consensus position. Ethereum is following the path of digital asset ecology. Through the exploration of application scenarios such as defi, nft, and games generated by Ethereum, it will promote the path of large-scale application in the encryption field. From the current point of view, the development of Bitcoin and Ethereum is hard to distinguish.
Who reached the singularity moment faster?
Bitcoin is getting closer and closer to its singularity moment. Maybe three to five years later, its users will reach a certain scale, and then undergo a sudden change, entering a stage of rapid improvement. BTC currently relies to a certain extent on the promotion of the outside world, including traditional institutions, in order to attract large-scale users.
Ethereum's singularity moment relies on mass adoption of DeFi, NFT, web3 games, and web3 social. But this singularity moment requires infrastructure support. At present, L2-based smart contract wallet and Rollup-based expansion are under construction, and it may take three to five years to complete the overall infrastructure construction. Once the infrastructure is built, it will greatly promote the arrival of the moment of singularity.
Generally speaking, the breakthrough logic of Bitcoin and Ethereum is different. With the overall increase in the economic value of the Ethereum network, Ethereum, which is the underlying asset and security provider, will be forced to continuously increase its market value. At present, a small part of tokenized dollars (nearly 100 billion U.S. dollars) has been tokenized on Ethereum and applied to the DeFi ecosystem. If in the future part of the tokenization of U.S. debt and U.S. stocks is based on Ethereum for wider circulation, the scale of Ethereum defi will increase to a considerable extent.
Who will end up on the Iron Throne?
If within the next five years, Bitcoin enters the Singularity faster than Ethereum, then Bitcoin may have a head start on the way to the Iron Throne due to its social consensus strength.
If in the next three to five years, Ethereum completes infrastructure construction (complete rollup-centered expansion + L2-based smart contract wallet, etc.), and Bitcoin does not enter the singularity moment during this period, then Ethereum will be in 3-5 It is possible to accelerate into the moment of singularity in the next year, that is, it is possible to enter the mass adoption stage faster than Bitcoin.
Once the infrastructure construction is completed, Ethereum will realize an interactive experience close to the traditional web2 based on the L2 multi-chain or L3, which will remove the barriers to entry for large-scale users. The exploration of NFT, Defi, web3 games, and web3 social networking will be greatly accelerated. If rwa enters the Ethereum defi field, it may promote a substantial increase in its TVL and enter a new level of composability exploration.
Bitcoin has a time window of about five years. If within these five years, with the simultaneous promotion of traditional institutions and communities, the singularity moment is realized, then it will not be easy for Ethereum to catch up.
However, if the singularity moment is not reached within five years, the security of Ethereum needs to be greatly improved because it carries a large number of digital assets five years later. The super underlying chain of more than ten trillion US dollars.
As far as the current situation is concerned, whether Bitcoin or Ethereum can finally go to the Iron Throne, I dare not make a conclusion. Everything depends on how it evolves over the next five years. The construction of the two in the next five years basically determines the position of the leader in the encryption world in the next few decades. Any mutual ups and downs are temporary until the two peak. Everything is evolving and no one has a crystal ball. Everyone will have their own preferred logical assumptions. Just believe what you believe.
If you have to talk about a probability, at present, only my personal opinion, Ethereum has a slightly better probability of winning. However, this is just a family opinion, and this probability is constantly adjusted over time, and it will not be fixed. Let's see who can win in the next five years. These five years are the most critical construction stage, and we can basically see the clues of the pattern.
(Data source: Blue Fox Notes)