On July 18th, Jin10 Data reported that some European Central Bank policymakers initially opened the door to further interest rate cuts in July, but now that door has been closed tightly. Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at the Dutch Cooperative Bank, pointed out that the data showed that the bank should remain cautious and does not need to cut interest rates continuously in July. The European Central Bank's forecasts may be too mild, so it will not prevent it from cutting interest rates again in September. However, we believe that our forecast for future deposit Interest Rate has upside risks.

Most analysts expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates twice in September and December this year, but the balance of risks is inclined to only cut interest rates once before the end of the year. Although inflation has remained high, record low unemployment rates and faster wage rises have raised doubts about future rate cuts. More than 80% of economists expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates twice in September and December this year, bringing the Interest Rate down to 3.25%.