Ripple (XRP) Price Prediction: Setbacks in the Ripple Lawsuit Trigger a Fall, Beware of Breaking Below the 200-Day Moving Average

Gate news, FXEmpire analyst Bob Mason stated that Judge Torres rejected the joint motion from Ripple and the SEC, leaving the institutional sale ban and fines for Ripple (XRP) unresolved. Ripple faces a critical deadline in August to decide whether to cross-appeal, while the risk of an SEC appeal looms over XRP investors. If Ripple and the SEC continue to appeal in this case, a showdown in the Supreme Court may be imminent.

On June 26, Judge Analisa Torres made a crucial ruling in the ongoing SEC v. Ripple case, surprising investors. Judge Torres denied the joint motion for a second summary judgment submitted by Ripple and the SEC. The parties had previously requested a summary judgment on the terms of settlement, including lifting the ban on the sale of XRP to institutional investors and reducing the fine to $50 million.

Ripple's Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty responded to the ruling, stating: "This puts the ball back in our court. The court has given us two options: to dismiss our appeal questioning the agency's historical sell-off record or to continue the appeal. Stay tuned. In any case, the legal status of XRP as a non-security remains unchanged. Meanwhile, everything continues as normal."

What are the next steps for Ripple and the SEC?

Ripple must decide whether to proceed with the cross-appeal before August, which is a critical decision. If Ripple continues with the cross-appeal, the SEC may advance its appeal against the ruling on XRP's programmatic sales.

In 2023, Judge Torres ruled that the programmatic sales of XRP do not meet the third prong of the Howey test, which pertains to the expectation of profits derived from the efforts of others. If the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) successfully appeals, XRP will be subject to SEC regulation. In the worst-case scenario, U.S. exchanges may delist XRP. Delisting would affect ETF issuers' market access to XRP and could potentially force the SEC to reject the application for a spot XRP ETF.

Polymarket estimates that the probability of XRP spot ETF approval in 2025 is 78%, down from a peak of 98.2% before the ruling.

It is worth noting that if the SEC wins, Ripple may take this case to the U.S. Supreme Court. In January 2024, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse commented on the possibility of appealing to the Supreme Court regarding this case, stating: "The current Supreme Court, we would love to see what the odds would be in Las Vegas. They are not very friendly toward regulators."

XRP Price Outlook: SEC Appeal Plans and ETF Developments

Bob pointed out that the recent price outlook for XRP depends on Ripple's cross-appeal plan, whether the SEC continues to appeal, and developments related to the XRP spot ETF.

Breaking above $2.20 and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) could pave the way for the June 16 high of $2.3389. Continued buying pressure may push the price up to the May high of $2.6553. Conversely, a drop below the 200-day moving average could allow bears to target levels below $2 and the support level of $1.9299.

(Source: FXempire, Trading View)