2024 US Election Prediction: Trump's Approval Rating Rises to 53%

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, data from market prediction platforms shows that Donald Trump's support rate is gradually rising, with the latest predictions indicating he has garnered 53% support, while his main competitor Kamala Harris remains at 46%. This change in data has sparked widespread attention and discussion, particularly within the financial markets and the cryptocurrency community. The rise in Trump's support rate not only reflects his advantages in economic policy, voter mobilization, and party cohesion but also reveals the challenges and difficulties Harris faces during the campaign.

This article will analyze the key factors leading to Trump's rising approval ratings from multiple perspectives, including the Democratic Party's economic policies, shifts in the attitudes of centrist voters, the impact of absent political figures in key states, and the widespread support for Trump from the cryptocurrency industry, to help readers gain a more comprehensive understanding of this complex electoral dynamic.

I. Harris's Economic Policy Sparks Controversy

The economic policies proposed by Harris are one of the core components of her campaign. However, these economic policies have sparked widespread controversy in American society, especially among centrist voters.

1. Controversy over Price Control Policies

Among Harris's economic policies, the most controversial is the price control measures she proposed. These measures aim to limit the pricing power of companies on essentials through legislative means to prevent price gouging. However, despite the theoretical benefits of this policy in controlling inflation and protecting consumer interests, economists and policy experts generally question its feasibility in practice.

Many experts believe that price controls may lead to market distortions, causing supply chain issues and shortages of goods. An editorial from the media pointed out that Harris's price control policies could undermine the supply-demand balance in the market, potentially leading to black markets and hoarding phenomena. This concern is not unfounded; historically, many price control measures have failed due to poor market responses. Therefore, while Harris's policy may attract some voters hoping to reduce living costs in the short term, it could lead to economic instability in the long run. This has resulted in her support among centrist voters being undermined, especially among those highly concerned about economic stability and market freedom.

2. Challenges of Housing Policy

Harris's housing policy has also played a complex role in the election. She proposed a plan to address the housing shortage by constructing a large number of affordable homes for the middle class. This policy seems reasonable on paper, especially in the face of America's increasingly severe housing crisis, as increasing housing supply is undoubtedly a direct and effective solution.

However, the problem lies in the extremely high execution costs of this policy, and its economic feasibility and actual effectiveness have been widely questioned. For example, Harris promised to build 3 million affordable housing units during her first term, but the sources of funding and the details of policy implementation have not been clearly specified. Even more, she also made a commitment not to increase the tax burden on families earning less than $400,000 a year, which means the funding for the entire project may rely on massive government deficits or increased taxes on the wealthy, which will undoubtedly further intensify the criticism from both inside and outside the Democratic Party.

This uncertainty not only makes moderate voters uneasy, but also raises doubts about Harris's credibility in policy execution. Price controls and subsidies for homebuyers seem to directly address the interests of low- to middle-income voters, but they may inadvertently lead to further increases in market prices, exacerbating supply and demand contradictions. Therefore, while the introduction of housing policies demonstrates Harris's concern for social issues, the shortcomings in policy design and the difficulties in execution have backfired in the electoral situation.

3. Attraction and Limitations for the Middle Class

Harris's economic policy centers on improving the quality of life for the middle class, with a particular emphasis on increasing the child tax credit and controlling healthcare costs to enhance the economic security of the middle class. These measures are theoretically aimed at alleviating the economic pressures faced by the American middle class, especially against the backdrop of high childcare costs and medical expenses.

However, as some critics have pointed out, while these policies have received support from some voters, the long-term sustainability and funding sources remain unresolved challenges. The votes of the middle class are crucial for any candidate, but if the policies are poorly implemented, these votes may shift to opponents. Although Harris's policy design has idealistic elements, potential issues during the implementation process, such as the possibility of increasing the government budget deficit, weaken the actual appeal of these policies to the middle class.

In addition, Harris attempts to combine economic policies with social justice issues, such as achieving broader social equity through anti-discrimination legislation and reducing the economic burden on impoverished groups. However, this approach has raised concerns among conservatives and some moderates, who believe these policies may further expand government power and increase social and economic uncertainty while winning support from progressives.

4. Overall Impact on the Election Situation

Overall, while Harris's economic policies demonstrate some concern for the middle class and low-income groups, the radical nature of the policy design and lack of execution details have resulted in her support among centrist and economically liberal voters not effectively increasing. On the contrary, these voters may be more inclined to support Trump, who has clearer positions and more pragmatic policies.

The controversy surrounding these policies has not only put Harris in a passive position in the election but also provided Trump with a pretext for attack. Trump can leverage the uncertainties within these policies to emphasize his experience in economic management and his support for market freedom, thereby attracting voters who are more concerned about economic stability and growth. Thus, the impact of the Democratic Party's economic policies in this election is twofold: on one hand, it strengthens Harris's support among progressives; on the other hand, it creates more uncertainty among key moderate voters, thereby providing conditions for Trump's rising approval ratings.

2. The Attitudes of American Centrist Voters Are Wavering

Centrist voters often play a key role in U.S. elections. Their positions typically do not lean towards either side, focusing more on the candidates' actual policies and their impact on the economy and society. Against the backdrop of controversies surrounding Harris's economic policies, support for her among centrist voters has begun to decline. In contrast, although Trump's economic policies are also controversial, his clear stance on tax cuts and economic stimulus aligns more closely with the expectations of centrist voters regarding economic development.

In addition, Trump's support for free markets and the economic measures he implemented during his presidency, such as tax cuts and deregulation, have also gained recognition from some centrist voters. In contrast, Harris's economic policies are seen as too radical, particularly regarding price controls and housing subsidies, making it difficult for her to gain support among centrists.

III. The Impact of the Absence of Key Political Figures in Key States

The absence of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has negatively impacted Harris's campaign. As a key swing state, the attitudes of its voters are crucial to the outcome of the national election. Shapiro's absence may be interpreted as dissatisfaction within the party regarding Harris's economic policies or campaign strategy, and this discontent may further weaken Harris's support in the state.

In this situation, voters may doubt Harris's campaign abilities and party cohesion, leading them to support the more certain Trump. Shapiro's absence not only affects Harris's election prospects in Pennsylvania but also indirectly impacts her performance in other swing states. For Harris, ensuring unity within the party and support from key states is crucial to her campaign's success, but Shapiro's absence undoubtedly increases her challenges in this regard.

4. Trump and the Good Relationship with the Crypto Industry

Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry is another important factor in his rising approval ratings. Although Trump had a negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies in the early days, he gradually changed his stance and began to actively support the crypto industry as the market developed.

In the 2024 election, Trump became one of the first major candidates to publicly accept cryptocurrency donations. His campaign team announced that they would accept donations in various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. This initiative not only demonstrates his open attitude towards cryptocurrencies but also establishes a closer connection with the crypto community.

The decision to accept cryptocurrency donations is a strategic step that not only expands Trump's voter base but also attracts younger voters and tech enthusiasts who are skeptical of the traditional financial system. These voters often have a strong sense of identity with decentralization, free markets, and financial innovation, and by accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump sends them a clear signal: he supports this emerging field and is willing to advocate for it politically.

In addition to accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump has made a series of policy commitments that further solidify his position within the crypto community. One of the most notable pledges is the pardon of the Silk Road founder. Silk Road was one of the earliest and most famous cryptocurrency trading platforms, and this case holds significant symbolic meaning within the crypto community. Trump's commitment has not only won him a large number of cryptocurrency supporters but also conveyed his tolerant attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry to the outside world.

In addition, Trump also stated that if he is elected again, he will promote the inclusion of Bitcoin into the United States' strategic reserves and consider using Bitcoin to address some national debt issues. Although these proposals have sparked widespread controversy in mainstream finance, they have received a warm response within the crypto community. Cryptocurrency supporters believe that these initiatives will greatly enhance the legitimacy and global status of cryptocurrencies, bringing greater development opportunities to the industry.

This supportive attitude has gained widespread recognition within the cryptocurrency community. Compared to Harris, Trump's stance in the cryptocurrency field is clearer and more proactive, earning him a large number of supporters in this emerging market. Practitioners and investors in the cryptocurrency industry are very sensitive to the market's prospects and are more willing to support a candidate who has an open attitude towards the crypto industry. Trump's position has clearly won him the support of this segment of voters and has boosted his approval ratings.

5. Political Donations from Cryptocurrency Companies during the 2024 U.S. Election Cycle

According to relevant reports, nearly half of the corporate political donations during the 2024 election cycle come from cryptocurrency companies. These companies influence election outcomes by supporting candidates aligned with their interests. The cryptocurrency industry's support for Trump is not only reflected in rhetoric but also significantly impacts the election through financial assistance.

This level of corporate support further solidifies Trump’s position within the crypto community and related industries. As more crypto companies and individual investors funnel funds into supporting Trump’s political action committee (PAC), Trump’s financial and promotional advantages in the election are enhanced, which directly drives up his odds in prediction markets.

Conclusion

In summary, the rise in Trump's election rate is the result of multiple factors working together. Harris's economic policies have sparked controversy, especially among moderate voters, making it difficult for her to boost her support. The absence of political figures in key states has intensified concerns about party division, further weakening Harris's support in those crucial areas. Meanwhile, Trump's supportive stance towards the cryptocurrency industry has earned him widespread recognition in this emerging market. At the same time, a