Those who are expecting a 50 basis point rate cut, have you really thought it through?

#BTC#
At 2 am Beijing time on September 19th, the Federal Reserve will announce the September Interest Rate decision. This week, the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is shrouded in an unusual atmosphere of mystery. Although the market has long priced in a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the debate over the magnitude of the rate cut remains unresolved just 12 hours before the Interest Rate decision is announced.
Is it a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut?
Since the last interest rate hike in July 2023, the Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark federal funds interest rate between 5.25% and 5.5%. This is the highest level in 23 years, despite the preferred PCE inflation indicator by the Federal Reserve dropping from 3.3% to 2.5% and the unemployment rate rising from 3.5% to 4.2%, the interest rate level has remained unchanged.
In recent weeks, even Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has unequivocally hinted that the September meeting will welcome a rate cut for this cycle. However, the Derivatives market has been pricing the rate cut amount that the Federal Reserve will take in an unstable manner. Until later last week, traders had locked in a 25 basis point rate cut. However, Friday's market sentiment changed dramatically, with a 50 basis point rate cut expectation appearing on the "negotiating table." As of Wednesday afternoon, the probability that federal funds futures traders priced in a 50 basis point rate cut exceeded 60%.