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Reuters poll: 45% chance of US recession in the coming year
On April 17, Reuters polled that the U.S. economy will grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 (previous forecasts in March were 2.2% and 2.0%, respectively). The probability that the United States will fall into a recession in the coming year is 45%, which is the highest level since December 2023. U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation expectations for 2025 have also seen the largest upward revision since March 2023.