QCP: Without a clear catalyst, Bitcoin is unlikely to break out of the current range significantly.

Gate News bot message, QCP stated in its latest market analysis that the unexpected increase in job vacancies boosted risk sentiment ahead of the key non-farm payroll data released on Friday, with the S&P 500 index approaching the important psychological level of 6,000 points. Stable non-farm payroll data will reinforce the Federal Reserve's narrative about the resilience of the labor market, strengthening expectations that the interest rate will remain unchanged.

In terms of trade, the market remains in a wait-and-see state ahead of the anticipated China-US talks. The front-end volatility of Bitcoin has decreased, with spot prices hovering around the familiar $105,000.

BTC continues to fluctuate within a range, with light positions and normalized skew, indicating insufficient directional conviction. Since May, the volatility curve has flattened from mid to late, echoing a similar decline in the volatility index (VIX), which has triggered opportunistic long Vega trades. Notably, the option premium for the $130,000 call option in September has risen to 47v, suggesting that after entering the third quarter, there will be some upward potential in the market.

Looking ahead, the third quarter may be more challenging. Tariff-related impacts may begin to permeate macro data, while the fiscal risks surrounding the "Big Beautiful Act" (BBB) and the debt ceiling may bring potential overall volatility. In the absence of clear catalysts, Bitcoin is unlikely to break significantly out of the current range.