XRP Market Analysis: Judge Rejects SEC's Motion for Settlement with Ripple, Probability of ETF Approval Plummets

Gate news, yesterday, there was new progress in the SEC vs Ripple case: Judge Torres rejected the joint motion from both parties, leaving the institutional sale ban and fines on XRP undecided. Ripple is facing a crucial deadline in August to make a decision on the cross-appeal, while the risk of the SEC's appeal looms over XRP investors. If Ripple and the SEC continue to pursue an appeal in this case, a showdown at the Supreme Court may be imminent.

SEC v. Ripple Case: Judge Torres' Ruling Sparks Strong Reactions On Thursday, June 26, Judge Analisa Torres made a crucial ruling in the ongoing SEC v. Ripple case that surprised investors. Judge Torres denied the joint motion for a second summary judgment filed by Ripple and the SEC. The parties had previously requested a summary judgment regarding the settlement terms, including lifting the ban on institutional investors selling XRP and reducing the fine to $50 million.

Ripple's Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty responded to the ruling, stating:

"In this way, the ball is back in our court. The court gave us two options: either reject our appeal questioning the historical sales records of the agency or continue with the appeal. Stay tuned. In any case, the legal status of XRP as a non-security remains unchanged. Meanwhile, everything continues as usual."

What is the next step for Ripple and the SEC? Ripple must decide whether to proceed with a cross-appeal before August, which is a crucial decision. If Ripple continues with the cross-appeal, the SEC may continue to appeal the ruling on the programmatic sales of XRP.

In 2023, Judge Torres ruled that the programmatic sales of XRP do not meet the third prong of the Howey Test, which involves the expectation of profits derived from the efforts of others. If the SEC successfully appeals, XRP will be subject to SEC regulation. In the worst-case scenario, U.S. exchanges might delist XRP. Delisting would affect ETF issuers' market access to XRP, potentially forcing the SEC to reject the application for an XRP spot ETF.

Polymarket expects a 78% chance of XRP spot ETF approval in 2025, down from a peak of 98.2% before the ruling.

It is worth noting that if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) wins the case, Ripple may take the case to the U.S. Supreme Court. In January 2024, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse (Brad Garlinghouse) commented on the possibility of an appeal to the Supreme Court, stating: "The current Supreme Court, we would love to see what the odds in Las Vegas would be. They are not friendly towards the regulators."

XRP Price Outlook: SEC Appeal Plans and ETF Developments XRP fell 3.76% on June 26 (Thursday), after a 0.26% drop on Wednesday, closing at $2.1042. The token underperformed the market, which fell 0.65%, bringing the total cryptocurrency market capitalization down to $3.23 trillion.

The short-term price outlook for XRP depends on Ripple's cross-appeal plan, whether the SEC continues to appeal, and the relevant developments regarding the XRP spot ETF.

If XRP breaks through $2.2 and the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), it may reach the high of $2.3389 on June 16. Continued buying pressure could push it past the May high of $2.6553. Conversely, a drop below the 200-day EMA might lead bears to target levels below $2 and the support level of $1.9299.

(Source: TradingView)

Bitcoin ends three consecutive gains Judge Torres' ruling has also put pressure on the cryptocurrency market, causing Bitcoin (BTC) to end its three-day rise. A cryptocurrency analyst pointed out that the ruling in the XRP case led to a general decline in the cryptocurrency market, which cryptocurrency supporter lawyer Bill Morgan referred to as the "Torres Effect."

On Thursday, the market's reaction to the ruling dampened retail investors' sentiment. However, institutional investor demand remains strong, and the US BTC spot ETF market has seen net inflows for 13 consecutive days.

The activities of whale and shark investors are consistent with the liquidity trends of spot ETFs, highlighting that market sentiment towards BTC is improving. Market intelligence platform Santiment reports that:

"The number of whale and shark wallets holding at least 10 Bitcoins (currently slightly above $1.07 million) has risen to its highest level since March 12. Due to the extreme market volatility, smart money has been accumulating during most retail panic selling cycles."

Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, commented on the current cryptocurrency landscape and market activities, summarizing the situation over the past 48 hours. Key highlights include:

Republican lawmakers propose establishing a comprehensive legal framework for cryptocurrency. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the cryptocurrency industry is maturing. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will include cryptocurrencies as collateral assets in mortgages.

BTC Price Outlook: Trade Dynamics, US Inflation, and ETF Fund Flows BTC price fell by 0.39% on June 26, partially reversing Wednesday's 1.18% gain, closing at $106,971; currently at $107,135, with the 24-hour decline narrowing to 0.7%.

The short-term price outlook depends on several key driving factors, including US inflation data, trade dynamics, the Middle East ceasefire, and ETF fund flows.

Potential Scenario:

Bearish scenario: The Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement breaks down, legislation is hindered, the US trade war escalates, US inflation intensifies, and ETF funds flow out. The combined effect of these factors could lead BTC to fall towards the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), breaking below the 100,000 USD mark. Bullish scenario: Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement reached, bipartisan support for cryptocurrency legislation, reduced tariff risks, and ETF fund inflows. In this case, BTC could return to its historical high of $111,917.

(Source: TradingView)

The following events are worth paying attention to Investors should pay attention to the progress of the Ripple case, legislative updates, news from the Middle East, trade dynamics, and ETF fund flows. These factors remain crucial for the recent price trends and may determine whether XRP or BTC will return to historical highs.

(Source: FXEmpire)