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📅 July 3, 7:00 – July 9,
Before the release of U.S. employment data, the bond market rebounded, and the stock market saw a slight pump.
Gate News bot reported that, according to Bloomberg, the bond market rebounded and the stock market rose slightly ahead of Thursday's non-farm payroll report. The report is expected to show a slowdown in U.S. hiring in the context of the trade war initiated by President Donald Trump.
U.S. Treasury bonds rose after a significant sell-off on Wednesday, following concerns about the fiscal situation in the UK that dragged down the global bond market. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell 2 basis points to 4.25%. After UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer insisted that Chancellor Rachel Reeves would remain in office, the yield on UK bonds of similar maturity fell 9 basis points.
The S&P 500 index futures rose by less than 0.1%, driven by the benchmark index hitting a new all-time high. The U.S. stock market will close at 1 PM New York time, coinciding with the celebration of Independence Day. European and Asian stock markets are up. The dollar is basically flat, while the pound rebounded by 0.3% after being the worst performer among major currencies on Wednesday.
The performance of the cross-asset markets highlights a cautiously optimistic sentiment, as traders navigate the uncertainty ahead of the employment report release, which will help determine the future direction of interest rates.
The employment data expected to be released on Thursday is likely to show a slowdown in hiring, with the unemployment rate reaching its highest level since 2021. A weak report could bolster dovish sentiment at the Federal Reserve and support the stock market near historical highs, while strong data could complicate the outlook.
Panmure Liberum strategist Susanna Cruz stated: "If we see negative values, the market may be a bit hasty. Powell has made it clear that any decision to cut rates will depend on the data. But it is still too early to assess this data, especially the inflation data."
Investors are also closely monitoring the financial situation in the United States, as House Republican leaders are urgently working to secure enough support for Trump's massive tax and spending plan, which is about to enter the final voting stage.