Matrixport: If Bitcoin continues its seasonal strength from July, the originally relatively conservative "summer adjustment" may face a correction.

PANews, July 4th news, Matrixport stated in its latest analysis that Bitcoin prices have recently been in a sideways trend, overall still within a narrow fluctuation range. Although there has been continuous net inflow into ETFs and corporate treasuries are steadily increasing their holdings, market funds are not tight, yet prices have not shown a significant breakthrough. The truly noteworthy change lies in the evolution of Bitcoin's volatility structure: actual volatility has dropped to a multi-year low, and the weekly implied volatility is only maintained at around 30%. The continuous decline in volatility reflects a more rational market operation on one hand, and on the other hand, it lowers the entry threshold for institutional funds that had previously remained on the sidelines due to risk control requirements. As more medium to long-term funds continue to enter the market, the upward momentum is gradually strengthening. This current period of "low volatility" consolidation may be nearing its end, as Bitcoin attempts to break through key trendline resistance, potentially opening up space for a new round of rising market. The inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has shown unexpected resilience, with approximately $14 billion flowing into related products since April, about $4 billion higher than what can be explained by spot prices. Wall Street's intention to continue the trend remains clear. Currently, over $100 billion in crypto-related IPOs are in the pipeline. Historically, July is usually a strong month for Bitcoin: in the past decade, there have been seven instances of rises, with an average increase of 9.1%. Even in years of decline, the drop has only been in single digits; in contrast, August and September are often weaker due to a drop in market activity and rising macro uncertainty. If this pace continues, Bitcoin may complete its final upward move in the coming weeks before re-entering a consolidation phase. Currently, the Federal Reserve's attitude has turned moderate, and the overall earnings reports of U.S. stocks are positive. Combined with the market sentiment recovery after the "7·4" holiday, these three factors provide a temporary external support for Bitcoin's price. However, if the overall net inflow does not significantly rebound, especially lacking the drive from retail investors or new funds, this round of rebound is expected to encounter resistance around $116,000. In an optimistic scenario, it may extend to $120,000. This recovery in market sentiment is also reflected in the "Greed/Fear Index": its smoothed moving average has shown signs of bottoming out and is expected to rebound towards the "Greed Zone"; this range usually corresponds to an increase in price momentum. Therefore, if Bitcoin continues its seasonal strength typical of July, the originally relatively conservative "summer adjustment" may face correction.