Is the altcoin market poised for a breakout? $63 billion influx, SOL/ETH Exchange Rate becomes a key indicator.

Core Tip: Recently, the altcoin market has shown strong signals of capital inflow, with approximately $63 billion flooding in. Bitcoin's market share is facing resistance at a key resistance level of 66% (the highest level since 2021) and has retreated. The market structure may be shifting towards altcoin season. High market capitalization altcoin/BTC trading pairs are rebounding from several months of support levels, among which Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) are at the core of this potential rotation. The SOL/ETH Exchange Rate dynamics have become a key barometer for measuring capital flow and altcoin performance.

Market Dynamics: Significant Capital Flow into Alts, BTC Dominance Faces Resistance

• In the past week, approximately $63 billion in new funds flowed into the altcoin market, attracting widespread attention.
• The Bitcoin dominance rate (BTC.D) has significantly encountered resistance and retreated at the key 66% resistance level (the highest level since 2021).
• Multiple high market capitalization alts/BTC trading pairs are rebounding from important months support area, indicating that market momentum may be shifting.
• Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) are seen as the frontrunners in this potential market structure change.

Key Findings of Q2: SOL/ETH Exchange Rate Reveals Capital Rotation Trajectory

When analyzing the performance of alts relative to Bitcoin, the cross-asset ratio (such as SOL/ETH) is crucial. The trend of the SOL/ETH exchange rate in the second quarter provides a clear picture:

• Strong Start in April: The SOL/ETH Exchange Rate experienced a 30% strong rebound at the beginning of April, reaching a high of 0.088 in mid-month, reflecting Solana's strong performance and leadership among alts at the start of the second quarter.
• June Significant Retracement: Momentum then reversed. By the end of June, the SOL/ETH Exchange Rate fell to 0.056, approaching the year's low. This indicates that market strength has clearly shifted back to Ethereum, with capital rotating from SOL to ETH.
• Performance Validation: The second quarter return on investment (ROI) data validates the technical differentiation: Solana increased by 20%, while Ethereum performed even stronger, rising 36.48%, highlighting ETH's relative strength in alts rotation.

Key Turning Point? SOL/ETH Exchange Rate Reaches Historical Support Level

However, the current situation may see a key change:

• Under macro pressure, BTC's share is squeezed, with funds accelerating into the altcoin sector.
• As of the time of publication (July 10, 2025), the SOL/ETH Exchange Rate is testing a key historical support level.
• If a valid rebound is confirmed at this position, it may validate a trend favorable for Solana's reversal, making it one of the most noteworthy potential alts this quarter.

Capital Inflow and Price Divergence: Can Solana Reverse the Ethereum Narrative?

On-chain data (Glassnode) shows: In the past week, Solana recorded $8.3 billion net inflow, higher than Ethereum's $6.2 billion. However, the price trend has significantly diverged from the capital flow:

• ETH Weekly Performance Strong: Surged nearly 7%, strongly breaking through the key $2,600 resistance level.

• SOL weekly relative weakness: Only a slight increase of 2.6%, after failing to break through $160, it has fallen into a consolidation.

• SOL/ETH Exchange Rate Confirmation Downward: Failed to hold the 0.06 resistance level, further reinforcing the view of "capital returning to Ethereum in early Q3".

  

Price Structure Differences: Ethereum Shows Greater Resilience

The performance comparison under key stress tests is striking:

• Solana (SOL) Depth Correction: Retraced 24% from the second quarter high of $187, forming three consecutive lower lows, hitting a low of $141 in late June.
• Ethereum (ETH) demonstrates resilience: After experiencing a 3% shallow pullback, it strongly rebounded to a new quarterly high of $2,878.
• This trend confirms Ethereum's strong bottom buying support and sustained market confidence.
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Conclusion: Solana is likely to face tough battles in the third quarter.

Based on the current market structure advantages and price momentum comparison, Ethereum seems to have the upper hand. If Solana wants to regain lost ground in the third quarter, reverse the SOL/ETH Exchange Rate disadvantage and challenge Ethereum's narrative, it will face a tough battle. Investors need to closely monitor the battle for the key SOL/ETH support level and subsequent capital rotation signals.