Gate Daily: Trump raises tariffs on India to 50%; Tornado Cash co-founder found guilty; Bitcoin and Ethereum August put options indicate big dump

Bitcoin (BTC) price has slightly rebounded, currently reported at around 114,850 USD during the Asian session today (7th). U.S. President Trump has raised tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, further suppressing the demand for Crypto Assets as trade tensions escalate. A Manhattan jury has found Tornado Cash co-founder and developer Roman Storm guilty of conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money business. Cryptocurrency traders are preparing for a potential price drop in Bitcoin and Ethereum this August, as DeriveXYZ's options data indicates a clear bearish trend in the market.

Today's Outlook

1. China's July trade balance (in billion yuan), previous value was 825.96

2. China's July trade balance (billion USD), previous value was 114.77

3. China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of July (in billion USD) were 3317.42, with a previous value of 3317.42.

4. Germany's seasonally adjusted trade balance for June (billion euros) was 17.6 previously.

5. The official bank interest rate in the UK was previously 4.25%.

6, The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week (adjusted, in thousands) (as of 0802) was 218, previous value.

7. The United States begins to implement "reciprocal tariffs"

8. San Francisco Fed President Daly gave a speech

9. The Bank of England announced the interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report.

10. Atlanta Fed President Bostic participated online in a fireside chat regarding monetary policy with the Florida Chief Financial Officers Association.

Macro Events & Coin Circle Hotspots

1. U.S. President Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods due to India's continuous purchase of Russian energy. Previously, the U.S. had already imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, and this new measure further increases the relevant tax rate to 50%. Bloomberg reported that Trump's latest tariff action has intensified the dispute between the U.S. and India, a key Asian partner. The White House stated that Trump signed an executive order establishing the new tax rate. The executive order cites India's "direct or indirect import of Russian oil" as the reason for imposing an additional 25% tariff on products exported from India to the U.S. This order will be in addition to Trump's announcement last week of a 25% tariff on Indian imports. According to the executive order, the new tax rate will take effect within 21 days.

2. A Manhattan jury found Tornado Cash co-founder and developer Roman Storm guilty of conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money business. According to court reports from Inner City News, the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York (SDNY) ruled on Wednesday that Storm was convicted of a felony for his role in Tornado Cash. The jury found Roman guilty of conspiracy to operate an unlicensed remittance business, which carries a maximum sentence of 5 years in prison. The jury was unable to reach a consensus on the charges of conspiracy to commit money laundering and conspiracy to violate sanctions against North Korea. After four days of deliberation, the jurors informed the court early Wednesday that they were deadlocked on certain charges, prompting the judge to issue a special instruction urging them to reach a unanimous verdict. The prosecution's defense focused on presenting witnesses, primarily from the FBI, IRS, and hackers. These witnesses testified that Storm had the ability to modify Tornado Cash's code to prevent criminals from misusing it but chose not to do so. Storm's legal team also brought in their own experts, including Ethereum core developer Preston Van Loon and NAXO co-founder Matthew Edman.

3. Crypto Assets traders are preparing for a potential price drop of Bitcoin and Ethereum this August. DeriveXYZ's options data shows a clear market bias toward bearish sentiment. According to the data, the open contracts for Bitcoin put options expiring on August 29 are nearly five times that of call options. When investors expect asset prices to rise, they typically buy call options. Conversely, when they anticipate a decline in asset value, they buy put options. Notably, about 50% of Derive's put options activity is concentrated around an exercise price of $95,000, with another 25% distributed between $80,000 and $100,000. Data from the leading centralized derivatives exchange, Deribit, further confirms this, showing that the open contracts for put options with exercise prices of $110,000 and $95,000 exceed $2.8 billion. This indicates that traders are increasingly betting on prices falling below the six-figure threshold.

Market Trend

1. The price of $BTC has slightly rebounded, currently reported at around 114,850 USD, with $21.94 million liquidated in the past 24 hours, mainly from short positions.

2. The three major indices of the US stock market closed in the green on Wednesday (August 6), with the Nasdaq index soaring over 1%. Apple Inc. saw a rise following news of its commitment to domestic manufacturing, and several companies released optimistic earnings reports. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 81.38 points, an increase of 0.18%, closing at 44,193.12 points; the S&P 500 index increased by 45.87 points, a rise of 0.73%, closing at 6,345.06 points; the Nasdaq index rose by 252.87 points, closing at 21,169.42 points, an increase of 1.21%.

3. In the Gate BTC/USDT liquidation map, based on the current 114,918.50 USDT, if it falls to around 112,920 USD, the cumulative liquidation amount of long positions exceeds 298 million USD; if it rises to around 116,329 USD, the cumulative liquidation amount of short positions exceeds 143 million USD. The liquidation amount for shorts is significantly lower than that for longs, so it is recommended to reasonably control the leverage ratio to avoid triggering large-scale liquidations during market fluctuations.

4. In the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflow was 1.46 billion USD, outflow was 1.45 billion USD, resulting in a net outflow of 0.01 billion USD.

5. In the past 24 hours, contracts such as $ETH, $XRP, $SOL, $SUI, $ENA have seen a net outflow, indicating trading opportunities.

News Updates

1. The daily transaction count on the Ethereum network has risen to 1.87 million, nearing the historical high of 1.96 million set in January 2024.

2. Orca DAO proposes to stake 55,000 SOL and implement a two-year ORCA buyback plan.

3. The miner Iren's Bitcoin production and mining machine utilization rate in July surpassed MARA.

4. CME Federal Reserve Observation: The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September is 93.6%.

5, "Four Wars ETH 75% Win Rate Whale" was forcibly liquidated in the early morning with a position of 14,000 ETH, insufficient for 1 USD.

6. A certain whale/institution has increased its holdings by 27,073 Ether, worth approximately 97.62 million USD.

7. MetaMask has integrated the Sei blockchain, and now integrates 11 chains.

8. The Trump family's associated mining company, American Bitcoin, plans to list on NASDAQ.

9. Bakkt plans to acquire a 30% stake in Japan's Marusho Hotta and rename it.

10. Whales @qwatio have reduced their BTC short position by half, with a capital loss of 2 million USD.

11. TAO Synergies has accumulated 42,111 Bittensor (TAO) tokens.

12. Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 1,821 BTC yesterday, while Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of 15,494 ETH.

13, The White House: Trump will impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods.

14. OpenAI tools will be deployed across various departments of the U.S. federal government.

15. White House: Apple will increase its commitment to $100 billion in U.S. investments.

X KOL Selected Insights

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): "Today's homework is still relatively easy to write. Although the price of BTC has risen, there hasn't really been any significant event today. It's still the same thing we've been emphasizing for the past two days: the current macro data's impact on the market is lower than the game between Trump and the Federal Reserve. While there are indeed investors worried about economic downturn, with Trump around, anything seems possible, like the possibility Trump mentioned yesterday about directly giving money to Americans. This isn't to say Trump is particularly impressive, but this current Trump indeed wants to leave a good reputation in history. An economic recession is not in his expectations; if it really happens, it can be left to Vance or the next administration. Today, I also chatted with Kan Ge @tktang88 about whether the U.S. will experience an economic recession. While I believe a recession is highly likely, it shouldn't happen this year and might even be forcibly prolonged by Trump. But what the cost would be is hard to say right now. Of course, it's a bit early to talk about a recession. I just want to point out that Trump is likely to not play by common sense to maintain his 'approval rating' during his term, so unless I really see signs of a recession, I'm still quite looking forward to what Trump can do. Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate has significantly decreased, indicating that investor sentiment is more stable, and previous concerns about the economy are gradually fading. It's not just BTC; the U.S. stock market has performed even better today, not only making up for yesterday's decline but continuing to rise. This is something we've been saying: BTC and the U.S. stock market are still highly correlated. I won't go into too much detail about the supporting data; there is a more detailed explanation in today's weekly report. Currently, the consensus around the bottom of about $110,000 is still very strong, and it hasn't touched the support level yet. Most investors still have quite a strong interest in BTC at this position."