Kaiyuan Macro: It is unlikely that the Central Bank of Turkey will start an interest rate cut cycle before the beginning of next year.

On September 19th, Jin10 data reported that after the Central Bank of Turkey kept the Benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 50%, as generally expected, the Turkish Lira against the US Dollar remained at a high level with little reaction. Nicholas Farrel, a macroeconomist at Capital Economics, said in a report that the Central Bank canceled the statement of tightening monetary policy when necessary, but there was no clear sign that it would start to cut interest rates. He said: "We still believe that before turning to a loose monetary policy, the Central Bank will want to further promote the process of inflation falling back." He believes that the speed of inflation decline for the rest of this year may be slower than the Central Bank's expected, and it is unlikely to cut interest rates for the first time before early 2025.