Analysis of the US BTC strategic reserve: not lower than expected in the short term, significant impact in the long term

TLNR:

The source of the US strategic reserves is the confiscated Bitcoin, and the market has long been prepared, which is not lower than expected.

2. Considering that the United States is still enforcing the law, in the future, holding Bitcoin = indirectly gaining dividends from the United States' crackdown on crypto crimes.

3. In the past 10 years, the United States has sold more than 200,000 bitcoins, and not selling anymore is equivalent to a soft lock-up, which is more intense than imagined.

4. The worst soft lock-up is 4 years, and if all goes well, it could be 12 years.

5. Strategic reserves have a significant positive impact on other countries and will gradually begin to emulate.

The market should have been prepared in advance for the US to consider confiscated bitcoins as a strategic reserve, after all, Trump promised this in Bitcoin 2024.

Secondly, just not buying is already a strong support. According to the statistics of Grok3, from 2014 to last year, the cumulative dumping of Bitcoin in the United States has exceeded 200,000, which is actually hidden selling pressure.

As strong as MicroStrategy, after so many years of accumulation, it can only absorb 1/3 of the Bitcoin selling pressure from the U.S. law enforcement.

Now these selling pressures will not flow into the market for at least 4 years, and if Vance succeeds in taking over, it will be a hard lock-up for 12 years.

Although it may not be as immediate as buying 1 million bitcoins on the spot in the United States, you should know that the United States may continue to enforce the law behind it, and each time the confiscated bitcoins will go into this reserve.

Over time, this is equivalent to a slow buyback.

As long as you are not the one doing evil, I believe that 99% of people are not. Holding Bitcoin is equivalent to sharing the dividends of the US crackdown on crypto crime.

Because, every time you strike a blow against crypto crime, your bitcoins in hand are slowly increasing in proportion to the entire network.

In addition, as the Bitcoin in this strategic reserve continues to rise, we all know that--position determines mindset, and the United States will increasingly favor Bitcoin.

At the same time, this has a decisive impact on the attitudes of other small countries. So in the next 1-2 years, we may see a country adopting a Bitcoin strategic reserve from time to time, and it has a FOMO effect because the cost of establishing a reserve may be higher the later it is done.

Grok3 took the time to organize it, these countries are all starting to prepare at different speeds, with the leadership effect of the United States, the progress of these countries will be much faster.

Keep faith, stay calm and don't be impetuous

TLNR:

1. The source of the US strategic reserves is the confiscated bitcoin, and the market has long been prepared for it, which is not lower than expected.

2. Considering that the United States is still enforcing the law, in the future, holding Bitcoin = indirectly obtaining dividends from the United States' crackdown on crypto crimes.

In the past 10 years, the United States has sold more than 200,000 bitcoins. Not selling anymore is equivalent to a soft lock-up, which is more significant than imagined.

4. The worst soft lock-up is 4 years, and if all goes well, it could be up to 12 years.

5. Strategic reserves, which have a significant positive impact on other countries, will gradually begin to emulate.

The market should have been prepared in advance for the US to use confiscated bitcoins as a strategic reserve, after all, Trump promised this as early as Bitcoin 2024.

Secondly, just not buying is already a strong support. According to Grok3's statistics, from 2014 to last year, the cumulative amount of Bitcoin dumped by the United States has exceeded 200,000. In fact, all of these are hidden selling pressure.

As strong as MicroStrategy, after so many years of accumulation, it can only absorb 1/3 of the bitcoin sell-off by the US law enforcement.

Now these sell pressures will not flow into the market for at least 4 years. If Vance successfully takes over, it will be a hard lock-up for 12 years.

Although it may not be as immediate as buying 1 million bitcoins in the United States, you should know that the United States may continue to enforce the law behind the scenes, and each time the confiscated bitcoins will go into this reserve.

Over time, this is equivalent to a slow buyback.

As long as you are not the one doing evil, I believe 99% of people are not, holding Bitcoin is equivalent to sharing the bonus of the United States cracking down on crypto crime.

Because, every time you strike a blow against crypto crime, the proportion of bitcoins in your hands equals the proportion of the entire network is slowly rising.

In addition, as the Bitcoin in this strategic reserve continues to rise, we all know that position determines mindset, and the United States will tilt more and more towards Bitcoin.

At the same time, this has a decisive impact on the attitude of other small countries. So in the next 1-2 years, we may see a country passing a Bitcoin strategic reserve from time to time, and it has a Fomo effect, because the later it establishes a reserve, the higher the cost it may face.

Grok3 took the initiative to sort it out. These countries, whether fast or slow, have all started preparations. With the leadership effect of the United States, the progress of these countries will be much faster.

Keep the faith, stay calm and don't be impatient