The Iran-Israel conflict has caused significant volatility in U.S. stocks, but Bitcoin's 60-day volatility is less than S&P 500, highlighting that the market structure has changed due to long-term holders and institutional funds. (Synopsis: Dialogue with Dragonfly Partner: Circle goes public, redefining the valuation expectations of crypto companies) (Background supplement: The female stock god sold Circle for three days to cash out 240 million magnesium, and the market value of CRCL has approached 95% of USDC issuance) War conflicts heat up, Bitcoin is the calmest? In June, the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated, and US President Donald Trump launched the first air strikes against Iran in nearly half a century. While the Dow Jones and Nasdaq were violently shaken, Bitcoin (BTC), known for its high volatility, unexpectedly remained calm, triggering a discussion about whether Bitcoin is moving towards a mature asset. Iranian Foreign Minister: No ceasefire agreement has been reached, Israel is willing to sit at the negotiating table only after reaching a condition 60-day volatility is lower than U.S. stocks for the first time According to Bitwise data, Bitcoin's 60-day volatility has dropped to 27%~28%, lower than 30% of the S&P 500, 35% of the Nasdaq 100, and significantly lower than the 40% of the U.S. stock seven. Even after briefly falling below $100,000 over the weekend, Bitcoin quickly recovered its lost ground. TradingView data also shows that bitcoin volatility has fallen below major stock indices for the first time. Changes in supply and demand: long-term holders and institutionalization Volatility convergence is closely related to changes in market structure. About 145,300 bitcoins have been deposited for a long time and continue to tighten their chips. According to the Glassnode report, long-term holding behavior is strengthening market resilience. At the same time, 216 institutions, covering spot ETFs, exchanges, custodians and corporate vaults, collectively control more than 30% of the liquidity, which also forms a "supply squeeze" and further suppresses volatility. Looking ahead to $150,000, risks remain A number of research institutions expect: supply deceleration after the halving in 2024, coupled with the possibility of global central bank easing, the theme of scarcity continues to ferment... Bitcoin is expected to challenge $150,000 by the end of 2025. However, the high concentration of currency holdings may still amplify price fluctuations when large players are out, and changes in the macro environment are also variables that cannot be ignored. Although the Iran-Israel conflict has once again tested the market, it is worth watching to see whether Bitcoin's safe-haven narrative can be further strengthened with a "rite of passage" with low volatility. Related reports Circle stock price rushed to $230 to write a new all-time high! GENIUS stablecoin bill helps CRCL soar 530% in two weeks From on-chain to Wall Street: Circle leads the spike, and these 13 crypto giants line up IPO Circle stock price breaks through $200 and reaches a new high! CRCL market capitalization has approached 80% of USDC issuance〈Bitcoin volatility is less than US stocks: Iran-Israel war highlights the maturity of crypto assets" This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".
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Bitcoin volatility is lower than US stocks: The Iran-Israel war highlights the maturation of encryption assets.
The Iran-Israel conflict has caused significant volatility in U.S. stocks, but Bitcoin's 60-day volatility is less than S&P 500, highlighting that the market structure has changed due to long-term holders and institutional funds. (Synopsis: Dialogue with Dragonfly Partner: Circle goes public, redefining the valuation expectations of crypto companies) (Background supplement: The female stock god sold Circle for three days to cash out 240 million magnesium, and the market value of CRCL has approached 95% of USDC issuance) War conflicts heat up, Bitcoin is the calmest? In June, the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated, and US President Donald Trump launched the first air strikes against Iran in nearly half a century. While the Dow Jones and Nasdaq were violently shaken, Bitcoin (BTC), known for its high volatility, unexpectedly remained calm, triggering a discussion about whether Bitcoin is moving towards a mature asset. Iranian Foreign Minister: No ceasefire agreement has been reached, Israel is willing to sit at the negotiating table only after reaching a condition 60-day volatility is lower than U.S. stocks for the first time According to Bitwise data, Bitcoin's 60-day volatility has dropped to 27%~28%, lower than 30% of the S&P 500, 35% of the Nasdaq 100, and significantly lower than the 40% of the U.S. stock seven. Even after briefly falling below $100,000 over the weekend, Bitcoin quickly recovered its lost ground. TradingView data also shows that bitcoin volatility has fallen below major stock indices for the first time. Changes in supply and demand: long-term holders and institutionalization Volatility convergence is closely related to changes in market structure. About 145,300 bitcoins have been deposited for a long time and continue to tighten their chips. According to the Glassnode report, long-term holding behavior is strengthening market resilience. At the same time, 216 institutions, covering spot ETFs, exchanges, custodians and corporate vaults, collectively control more than 30% of the liquidity, which also forms a "supply squeeze" and further suppresses volatility. Looking ahead to $150,000, risks remain A number of research institutions expect: supply deceleration after the halving in 2024, coupled with the possibility of global central bank easing, the theme of scarcity continues to ferment... Bitcoin is expected to challenge $150,000 by the end of 2025. However, the high concentration of currency holdings may still amplify price fluctuations when large players are out, and changes in the macro environment are also variables that cannot be ignored. Although the Iran-Israel conflict has once again tested the market, it is worth watching to see whether Bitcoin's safe-haven narrative can be further strengthened with a "rite of passage" with low volatility. Related reports Circle stock price rushed to $230 to write a new all-time high! GENIUS stablecoin bill helps CRCL soar 530% in two weeks From on-chain to Wall Street: Circle leads the spike, and these 13 crypto giants line up IPO Circle stock price breaks through $200 and reaches a new high! CRCL market capitalization has approached 80% of USDC issuance〈Bitcoin volatility is less than US stocks: Iran-Israel war highlights the maturity of crypto assets" This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".