Explosion or bankruptcy? Dogecoin is waiting for an important signal, according to the analyst.

Dogecoin was trading at around $0.162 at the end of the European trading session on June 26, little changed on the day but still up 13% from last Sunday's low. However, beneath that calm price action, the market is balancing with what YouTube analyst More Crypto Online calls a "wait-and see situation" that could trigger decisive bullish momentum or slide back to the $0.14 level. Dogecoin is on the brink. In a video released yesterday titled "Is DOGE About to CRASH or BULLISH? Price Analysis and Scenarios", the Elliott wave commentator argued that the upward momentum from the bottom on June 22 is still not complete. "The Doge chart is still, yes, trying to reverse here in a bullish direction from the lows formed on June 22," he said right off the bat, emphasizing that the rise so far "is just a three-wave move." As the structure has not yet printed a full five-wave sequence that typically precedes a new bullish trend, he warned traders not to assume that the worst is over. The technician identified the low on June 22 within the support range between $0.15 and $0.14, an area that also includes the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the bullish move from May to June and is just above the April cycle - his "hard invalidation point." Since then, Dogecoin has bounced back in what he calls an abc recovery, with the third wave peaking at $0.169, exactly at the Fibonacci extension level of 1.618 that he is looking for in a "healthy third wave." If the current price can create a higher low of the fourth wave and extend to the high of the fifth wave near $0.174-$0.177, the analyst said, "actually we have five bullish waves and then we can add support ... and we have a setup."

Until there is confirmation, this move remains a "chameleon wave" - more susceptible to deeper pullbacks than a bullish wave two scenario. The boundary line is $0.158. "Any current break below $0.158 will indicate that the bullish reversal attempt has failed and we will fall back into the support zone, and we may even test the $0.14 level," he warned. Conversely, holding that minor support level and breaking through $0.17 would provide the first "evidence" that a sustainable bottom has formed. The stakes are very high because, as the analyst points out, the confirmation of the five-wave momentum will force the subsequent corrections to adhere to a higher-lower framework, allowing traders to reposition with clearer risk parameters. A failure could pull Dogecoin back into the broad consolidation range that dominated June and risks reversing sentiment towards a prolonged bearish trend. Currently, the short-term fate of memecoins depends on whether buyers can create the final fifth bullish wave without breaching the $0.158 threshold. He concluded: "Right now, we are in a wait-and-see situation to see if we actually have five bullish waves or not." Until the chart is resolved, Dogecoin remains suspended between a technical breakout and another downturn - whether it soars or crashes depends on a single daily signal.