Starting today, the global market will enter the "Super 72 Hours".

This round of market testing will kick off on Wednesday, when the U.S. will release its second-quarter GDP data, followed a few hours later by the Fed's interest rate decision. Immediately after, tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will successively release their earnings reports after the market close on Wednesday and Thursday, while the highly anticipated U.S. July non-farm payroll report will be released on Friday.

Written by: Ye Zhen

Source: Wall Street Watch

The trade negotiations between China and the United States have released positive signals, but the global market cannot afford to be complacent. Starting this Wednesday, the global market will enter a critically important 72 hours.

A series of intensive U.S. economic data, earnings reports from tech giants, and key trade policy milestones will take turns making their appearances. The combination of these events may set the tone for the market direction for the remainder of the year.

The current market test will kick off on Wednesday, when the United States will announce the second quarter GDP data, followed a few hours later by the Fed's interest rate decision. Subsequently, tech giants such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will release their earnings reports after the market closes on Wednesday and Thursday, while the highly anticipated U.S. July non-farm payroll report will be released on Friday.

Any one of these events is enough to trigger market turmoil. Against the backdrop of a significant rebound in U.S. stocks since the low in April and already high valuations, this "Super Week" is seen by the market as a severe test. Mike O'Rourke, an analyst at Jones Trading, stated that this week "could prove to be the most critical week of the year," and its outcome will test Wall Street's resolve.

At the same time, the market's attention is also directed towards the East, with the upcoming meeting of the Political Bureau, and investors are closely following the new economic policy signals that China is about to release.

U.S. Economic Data Released Intensively

In the latter half of this week, a series of significant economic data will provide key clues for assessing the health of the U.S. economy. According to predictions by the Atlanta Fed, the annualized GDP growth rate for the second quarter is expected to be around 2.9%, which mainly reflects a decline in imports. Previously, in the first quarter, a surge in inventory-related imports had a drag on GDP.

In terms of monetary policy, although President Trump insists that the Intrerest Rate should be significantly lowered, the market widely expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate range of 4.25% to 4.5% unchanged at Wednesday's meeting.

Investors' focus will be on whether there is an increasing divergence between Fed Chairman Powell and other decision-makers—one side wants to further assess the impact of tariffs on inflation before cutting interest rates, while the other side wants to act as soon as possible.

Finally, Friday's employment report is expected to show that the U.S. added 115,000 jobs in July, a slowdown from 147,000 in the previous month.

According to a FactSet survey, any unexpected data in either direction could trigger cross-market volatility. Charlie McElligott, a derivatives strategist at Nomura, pointed out that the "absolutely crowded data calendar" implies a "huge event risk" at the end of the month.

Tech Giants' Earnings Reports Test Market Strength

As the data is released, the earnings season for US stocks also reaches its peak. Microsoft and Meta are scheduled to announce their results after the market closes on Wednesday, while Apple and Amazon will follow on Thursday. The combined market capitalization of these four tech giants exceeds $11 trillion, and their stock performance has a significant impact on Wall Street.

In recent weeks, buoyed by a resilient economy and optimistic sentiment that artificial intelligence will drive strong growth for major companies, the U.S. stock market has repeatedly set historical highs.

However, the rapid rise of the market has also made some analysts and investors uneasy. The S&P 500 index has risen 8.3% this year, with an expected price-to-earnings ratio of up to 22 times for the next 12 months.

In this context, the performance and outlook of technology giants will directly test whether the current high market valuations are reasonable.

The deadline for Trump's tariffs is approaching

Uncertainty also comes from the trade sector. The Trump administration's deadline for imposing "reciprocal" tariffs on countries with which it has not reached trade agreements is 12:01 a.m. Washington time on August 1.

In recent months, investor sentiment has eased due to the trade agreements reached between the United States and major partners such as the EU, Japan, and the UK, as well as the extension of the tariff suspension measures with China for 90 days. As a result, Wall Street banks have lowered their predictions for the probability of a potential recession. Investors are generally betting that Trump will avoid implementing tariffs that could cause excessive market volatility or will postpone them until after an agreement is reached.

However, risks remain. Matt King, global market strategist at Satori Insights, stated: "After all, Trump is Trump, and the risks of tariffs and related uncertainties still exist."

China's Policy Direction Attracts Follow

In China, the upcoming Politburo meeting has become another focus of market follow.

Huatai Research Analysis believes that based on the resilience shown in economic data in the first half of the year and the expectation that Sino-U.S. relations will maintain a certain degree of certainty and show marginal improvement before October, the focus of the Politburo meeting may be on:

1. Judging the economic situation, after the recent weakening of high-frequency data such as real estate, consumption, and exports, will the policy tone of stabilizing the real estate market and boosting consumption further strengthen?

2. Will the judgment of the real estate sector for "stabilizing after a decline" be further strengthened, and can the subsequent policy tools be clarified?

3. "Anti-involution" and the goals, task decomposition, and implementation paths of the capacity reduction policy;

4. Fiscal monetary or continuation of the policy tone since April, market expectations are relatively low.