Since Bitcoin's inflation rate halves every four years, coupled with past historical trends, there is a bull-bear talk of a "four-year cycle" circulating in the market, but this time it seems to be failing? This article is based on an article written by Duo Nine YCC and was compiled, compiled and written by Block Unicorn. (Synopsis: Bitcoin breaks through 87,000) Fed Bauer: Slowed down balance sheet reduction since April, interest rate cuts are expected 2 times this year, interest rates remain unchanged.. Five key points at a glance) (Background supplement: CryptoQuant CEO: The Bitcoin bull market has ended, all on-chain data is bearish, and 50x insider whales have begun to short BTC) Has the four-year cycle of Bitcoin died? In this article, I will answer this question, explain why everything has changed in the past two years, and then make a very important proposal. Let's get started. What is a four-year cycle? This four-year cycle stems from Bitcoin's fundamentals. Every four years, Bitcoin's inflation rate halves. Back in 2012, the first halving event reduced the issuance of new bitcoins by 50%, from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC. This had a huge impact on Bitcoin's supply-demand balance, especially during the first two halving events in 2012 and 2016. At that time, the price of Bitcoin soared as supply could not keep up with demand. Other cryptocurrencies (altcoins) followed suit. However, the impact on prices is diminishing with each new halving event. The most recent Bitcoin halving in 2024 only reduced the issuance of new Bitcoin from 6.25 BTC to 3.12 BTC. Considering that almost 95% of Bitcoin is already in circulation (almost 20 million BTC out of 21 million BTC), the impact of a future halving event on the price is rapidly becoming insignificant. What worked a few years ago is no longer applicable today. You can't "print free money" by buying any cryptocurrency like in the past. Today, we have new factors that have a more fundamental impact on the crypto cycle than Bitcoin's halving plan. It's time to elevate your thinking! This will be explained in more detail below. Why has the last two years changed everything? Two things that have changed the cryptocurrency landscape over the past two years are: Cryptocurrency ETFs (exchange-traded funds) go live Altcoin inflation In early 2024, Bitcoin was approved as an ETF for the first time. This suddenly opened up the global market for Bitcoin. Now, anyone can add Bitcoin to their retirement portfolio, which was not possible in the past. This represents a large amount of new money flowing into Bitcoin that did not exist before. But there's a problem here. As money flows into Bitcoin ETFs, this creates buying pressure on the Bitcoin spot price. However, this liquidity never really left the Bitcoin ETF to flow to altcoins because there were no altcoin ETFs other than Ethereum. Demand for the Ethereum ETF has so far been disappointing, totaling just $2.5 billion. As of early 2025, almost all ETF liquidity went to Bitcoin, totaling $40 billion, as shown in the chart. No wonder Ethereum has been falling against Bitcoin for years. The same goes for most altcoins. That's why, for the past two years, everyone has been waiting for the "real" altcoin season, which may actually never come. The altcoin rally in November 2024 pales in comparison to previous cycles. While SOL, XRP, BNB, and TRX hit new all-time highs, these prices are not far from past highs, while most altcoins, such as Ethereum or ADA, have failed to make new all-time highs. This clearly shows that altcoins are falling behind compared to Bitcoin. Why? Dilution of altcoins The number of altcoins today is simply too many (in the millions) compared to previous cycles. I explored this in detail in a past article. In short, the altcoin season was hijacked by Solana and its Meme coins. This basically sucks up all the liquidity of the altcoin. Soon after, when Solana's music was at its loudest, Trump broke the party by entering the stage in January 2025. This also ended the Meme coin season, with most Meme coins plummeting 80% to 90% since then. Funds or liquidity in cryptocurrencies are limited and are now divided among millions of altcoins. Moreover, Bitcoin is taking a larger and larger share. Just look at BTC's market dominance, which is the highest since 2021 at over 60%! Altcoins are in a tough situation. They account for only 40% of the market, and in the face of millions of coins, there is not much money left for altcoin season. If you're planning to play altcoin games, you really need to choose carefully. This brings me to an interesting analogy. In tennis, players participate in two types of matches: People who play the loser game (altcoin) People who play the winner game (Bitcoin) In the first case, tennis players must try to minimize mistakes, because as long as they do this, they can beat most opponents who make more mistakes. It's a loser game because losing less than most makes you a winner. In the second case, the tennis player is the top of the best. Their game is no longer about reducing points conceded, it's about technique and being a winner. This is a winner game played by the winner (top players). In cryptocurrency, if you play the altcoin game, you are playing the loser game, and to win, you need to pick the altcoin that loses less than the other coins. However, you can completely ignore this and choose to play the winner game by buying Bitcoin! It's time to look at Bitcoin and why it will continue to win regardless of the narrative of the four-year cycle, which is no longer relevant based on the situation of the past two years. Why is Bitcoin still king? I promised to give you a suggestion at the beginning of the article. The goal is to play the winner game and focus on Bitcoin. This is how you win in the long run. Limit your exposure to loser games (altcoins) to manageable. Otherwise, the situation can quickly turn out to be bad. With that premise in mind, here are 10 reasons why betting on Bitcoin makes you a winner: Fiat currency (USD) dilution – Central banks can't stop printing fiat money. Look at gold, it keeps hitting new highs. The same is true for Bitcoin in 2024, where the $100,000 resistance will eventually break. Be patient. Inflation – It's easy to rearrange dollars from the air, but you can't print Bitcoin out of thin air. This makes Bitcoin the hardest currency on the planet. That's where you store your wealth. Quantitative tightening is coming to an end – which means that quantitative easing is coming, which will make dilution and inflation of fiat currencies inevitable. The global money supply is at an all-time high – it's not just the United States that is diluting the wealth of its citizens, every country is doing it, just at a different rate. Take a look at the price of Bitcoin in the Turkish Lira. Gold – Since the end of 2023, its record-breaking price action seems to have no end. What is something better than gold? Bitcoin. Why does everyone buy gold? Because points 1 to 4. It's only a matter of time before people accept Bitcoin. Cryptocurrency ETFs - Calling them cryptocurrency ETFs is somewhat misleading, as 95% of the money flows into Bitcoin...
The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
Is the Bitcoin four-year cycle law failing? What exactly happened in the crypto market over the past 2 years?
Since Bitcoin's inflation rate halves every four years, coupled with past historical trends, there is a bull-bear talk of a "four-year cycle" circulating in the market, but this time it seems to be failing? This article is based on an article written by Duo Nine YCC and was compiled, compiled and written by Block Unicorn. (Synopsis: Bitcoin breaks through 87,000) Fed Bauer: Slowed down balance sheet reduction since April, interest rate cuts are expected 2 times this year, interest rates remain unchanged.. Five key points at a glance) (Background supplement: CryptoQuant CEO: The Bitcoin bull market has ended, all on-chain data is bearish, and 50x insider whales have begun to short BTC) Has the four-year cycle of Bitcoin died? In this article, I will answer this question, explain why everything has changed in the past two years, and then make a very important proposal. Let's get started. What is a four-year cycle? This four-year cycle stems from Bitcoin's fundamentals. Every four years, Bitcoin's inflation rate halves. Back in 2012, the first halving event reduced the issuance of new bitcoins by 50%, from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC. This had a huge impact on Bitcoin's supply-demand balance, especially during the first two halving events in 2012 and 2016. At that time, the price of Bitcoin soared as supply could not keep up with demand. Other cryptocurrencies (altcoins) followed suit. However, the impact on prices is diminishing with each new halving event. The most recent Bitcoin halving in 2024 only reduced the issuance of new Bitcoin from 6.25 BTC to 3.12 BTC. Considering that almost 95% of Bitcoin is already in circulation (almost 20 million BTC out of 21 million BTC), the impact of a future halving event on the price is rapidly becoming insignificant. What worked a few years ago is no longer applicable today. You can't "print free money" by buying any cryptocurrency like in the past. Today, we have new factors that have a more fundamental impact on the crypto cycle than Bitcoin's halving plan. It's time to elevate your thinking! This will be explained in more detail below. Why has the last two years changed everything? Two things that have changed the cryptocurrency landscape over the past two years are: Cryptocurrency ETFs (exchange-traded funds) go live Altcoin inflation In early 2024, Bitcoin was approved as an ETF for the first time. This suddenly opened up the global market for Bitcoin. Now, anyone can add Bitcoin to their retirement portfolio, which was not possible in the past. This represents a large amount of new money flowing into Bitcoin that did not exist before. But there's a problem here. As money flows into Bitcoin ETFs, this creates buying pressure on the Bitcoin spot price. However, this liquidity never really left the Bitcoin ETF to flow to altcoins because there were no altcoin ETFs other than Ethereum. Demand for the Ethereum ETF has so far been disappointing, totaling just $2.5 billion. As of early 2025, almost all ETF liquidity went to Bitcoin, totaling $40 billion, as shown in the chart. No wonder Ethereum has been falling against Bitcoin for years. The same goes for most altcoins. That's why, for the past two years, everyone has been waiting for the "real" altcoin season, which may actually never come. The altcoin rally in November 2024 pales in comparison to previous cycles. While SOL, XRP, BNB, and TRX hit new all-time highs, these prices are not far from past highs, while most altcoins, such as Ethereum or ADA, have failed to make new all-time highs. This clearly shows that altcoins are falling behind compared to Bitcoin. Why? Dilution of altcoins The number of altcoins today is simply too many (in the millions) compared to previous cycles. I explored this in detail in a past article. In short, the altcoin season was hijacked by Solana and its Meme coins. This basically sucks up all the liquidity of the altcoin. Soon after, when Solana's music was at its loudest, Trump broke the party by entering the stage in January 2025. This also ended the Meme coin season, with most Meme coins plummeting 80% to 90% since then. Funds or liquidity in cryptocurrencies are limited and are now divided among millions of altcoins. Moreover, Bitcoin is taking a larger and larger share. Just look at BTC's market dominance, which is the highest since 2021 at over 60%! Altcoins are in a tough situation. They account for only 40% of the market, and in the face of millions of coins, there is not much money left for altcoin season. If you're planning to play altcoin games, you really need to choose carefully. This brings me to an interesting analogy. In tennis, players participate in two types of matches: People who play the loser game (altcoin) People who play the winner game (Bitcoin) In the first case, tennis players must try to minimize mistakes, because as long as they do this, they can beat most opponents who make more mistakes. It's a loser game because losing less than most makes you a winner. In the second case, the tennis player is the top of the best. Their game is no longer about reducing points conceded, it's about technique and being a winner. This is a winner game played by the winner (top players). In cryptocurrency, if you play the altcoin game, you are playing the loser game, and to win, you need to pick the altcoin that loses less than the other coins. However, you can completely ignore this and choose to play the winner game by buying Bitcoin! It's time to look at Bitcoin and why it will continue to win regardless of the narrative of the four-year cycle, which is no longer relevant based on the situation of the past two years. Why is Bitcoin still king? I promised to give you a suggestion at the beginning of the article. The goal is to play the winner game and focus on Bitcoin. This is how you win in the long run. Limit your exposure to loser games (altcoins) to manageable. Otherwise, the situation can quickly turn out to be bad. With that premise in mind, here are 10 reasons why betting on Bitcoin makes you a winner: Fiat currency (USD) dilution – Central banks can't stop printing fiat money. Look at gold, it keeps hitting new highs. The same is true for Bitcoin in 2024, where the $100,000 resistance will eventually break. Be patient. Inflation – It's easy to rearrange dollars from the air, but you can't print Bitcoin out of thin air. This makes Bitcoin the hardest currency on the planet. That's where you store your wealth. Quantitative tightening is coming to an end – which means that quantitative easing is coming, which will make dilution and inflation of fiat currencies inevitable. The global money supply is at an all-time high – it's not just the United States that is diluting the wealth of its citizens, every country is doing it, just at a different rate. Take a look at the price of Bitcoin in the Turkish Lira. Gold – Since the end of 2023, its record-breaking price action seems to have no end. What is something better than gold? Bitcoin. Why does everyone buy gold? Because points 1 to 4. It's only a matter of time before people accept Bitcoin. Cryptocurrency ETFs - Calling them cryptocurrency ETFs is somewhat misleading, as 95% of the money flows into Bitcoin...