Jin10 data reported on June 2, the chief economist of the Financial Service company AMP, Shane Oliver, stated that Australia is expected to announce its first quarter GDP data on Wednesday, which may indicate that the economy has slowed down at the beginning of the year due to weak consumer demand and declining business investment. Oliver predicts that the rise in trade, government spending, and residential investment will contribute to a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth. This will push the annual growth rate up to 1.5%. Mediocre growth data should support the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia still has significant room for interest rate cuts.

AMP Chief Economist Oliver stated that Australia should avoid an economic recession triggered by tariffs, as there is still room for interest rate cuts. He believes that the current cash rate of 4.10% provides the Reserve Bank of Australia with room to adjust. Although he thinks the RBA does not need to urgently cut rates, there is a 35% chance of a 0.5 percentage point cut at the meeting in May. He pointed out that the weakness of the Australian dollar may pose a smaller upward risk to inflation.

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On December 23, the financial data of AMPFinancial Service, the chief economist of Australia Shane

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Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, said the risk of a recession in Australia in the coming year was 40%. He expects the RBA to cut the cash Intrerest Rate to 3.6% from the current 4.35% as the economy slows. At the same time, residential real estate prices are likely to fall. Oliver added that the key factors to watch are inflation and Intrerest rates, recession risks, U.S. politics and consumer spending.

AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver warned that due to the overvaluation of the US stock market and the extreme policies of Trump, a pullback of more than 15% may occur. The Trump team has been constantly changing, lacking rational voices, leading to increasingly extreme policies. Although tax cuts, shrinking government, and deregulation make sense, the current situation seems to be out of control.

AMP economists say that the Australian stock market is expected to have a return rate of only 7% in the next year and may face a pullback of more than 15%. However, with the expected interest rate cut by the Australian Reserve Bank, the economic rise prospects later this year will improve and investment returns will remain good.

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AMP chief economist Oliver said there could be pullback in global and Australian equity markets, or there could be a more Fluctuation and constrained trajectory than so far this year. The main threat is Iran's attack on Israel, which threatens to escalate the conflict in the Middle East, threaten oil supplies, and postpone interest rate cuts due to rising inflation. "The combination of overvalued valuations, high investor optimism and technically overbought conditions makes it vulnerable to further pullbacks," Oliver said. Geopolitical risks, including events in the Middle East, delayed rate cuts, and the risk of a recession could all be triggers. ”

Odaily Star Daily News According to Shane Oliver, Chief Economist of Financial Service Company AMP, after the 4.9% pump in Australian house prices in 2024, the average house price is expected to pump about 3% in 2025. However, he said that the performance of this year will be divided into two, with the situation in the first few months being weak due to high interest rates and rising unemployment, and the situation improving in the second half of the year, as lower interest rates will eventually provide a boost. Oliver believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia will start cutting interest rates before May and is expected to cut three times this year, 25 basis points each time.

Odaily Planet Daily News AMP Chief Economist and Investment Strategy Director Shane Oliver

On July 3, Jinshi Data reported that Shane, Chief Economist of AMP Capital,