Many people say that there is no alt season anymore, and the four-year bull-bear cycle is gone. I thought that if it happens every four years, then this bull run should be in 2025. It's not even the end of 2025 yet, and predictions are already being made that it won't happen? Wasn't the big bull run in 2017 also from September to December? This year hasn't even reached September yet.

Secondly, some people say that there are too many cryptocurrencies now, and there isn’t enough money to pump them. In the past, there were only a few thousand coins, but now there are thousands of new ones every day, and the total number of coins is not far from breaking one hundred million. So if I just create a coin on the blockchain for fun during a bull run, can it also reach a market value of tens of millions of dollars? Indeed, there are thousands of new coins added every day, but the vast majority of them go to zero on the same day, not to mention entering the secondary market. Institutions don’t pump these coins; they at least pump coins that are available in the secondary market, those on mainstream exchanges. Checking the current cmc or CoinTiger, I find that there are over 9,700 coins listed on cmc, and about 17,000 on CoinTiger.
In the copycat season of the big bull market in previous years, the market share of Bitcoin will reach more than 70%, and Bitcoin will break through the previous high, and then sideways for a few days, and the copycat will begin to follow the rally. Then Bitcoin stabilized and continued to rise, then sideways, and the copycat season also continued to rise.... After the next few rounds, Bitcoin rose to the highest point and then began to fall, and the copycat also began to fall, and a long bear market began. In a bear market, bitcoin can fall by as little as 85%, and altcoins can fall by 99%. Then the next round begins .... Looking back at the Mavericks twice in 2024, once in March and once in December. On both occasions did Bitcoin account for more than 70% of the market. And after Bitcoin broke through new highs twice, the copycat only rose for one round and began to plummet, because Bitcoin did not continue to break through new highs. Looking back at the big bull market from January to April 2021, Bitcoin accounted for more than 70% of the market in January, and then in the past four months, it has continued to break through new highs and more than tripled, and copycats have increased dozens of times.
If Bitcoin does not break new highs in the future, there will indeed be no alt season. Or if Bitcoin breaks new highs and then drops back down, there will also be no alt season. Personally, I still have a positive outlook on the performance of altcoins in the next six months.
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