The encryption game between "expectation" and "reality": Trump dinner, who is manipulating the nerves of the market?

Outside the Trump National Golf Club in Stirling, Virginia, May 22, 2025, protesters hold signs that read "Crypto Corruption" while 220 "whales" holding multimillion-dollar Trump tokens (TRUMP) are waiting to have dinner with the former president. At the same time, the price of TRUMP tokens staged an absurd roller coaster: at 17 pm Beijing time on the 22nd, the price violently rose from $14 to $16, but fell back to $14 at 4 am on the 23rd, before the dinner began. Behind this farce, the ultimate game of "market signals" and "real events" is unfolding – is the facts changing the market, or is the market making up facts?

1. Trump Dinner: A Perfect Experiment of "Expectation Overdraft"

1. "FOMO Extravaganza" on the eve of the dinner

According to on-chain data, within 48 hours after the announcement of the dinner news, the trading volume of TRUMP Token surged by 300%, with 220 "Whales" having an average holding cost of $1.78 million, while the token price once skyrocketed by 50%. Ironically, when the dinner officially started on the evening of the 22nd, the price had already retreated in advance— the market had already completed its harvest in the "anticipated narrative."

Key Logic Chain

• Signal propagation > Fact occurrence: Price peak occurred during the news diffusion period (Beijing time on the 22nd), rather than at the time of the event landing (US time on the evening of the 22nd)

• Liquidity trap: Despite TRUMP's daily trading volume exceeding $3.8 billion, the spot depth is less than $5 million, and the market maker can control the market with just $20 million.

2. The "self-fulfilling prophecy" of political narratives

The Trump team has linked the token holdings to political resources (such as access to the White House), essentially securitizing "social capital". This model relies on continuous hot topic stimulation; once the narrative stagnates, the price collapses—just like on May 23, when Democratic lawmakers proposed to ban "encryption corruption," TRUMP fell again.

II. Do you still remember the ETF approval: The "information arbitrage war" behind the SEC website crash

2024 ETF Frenzy: Delays, Congestion, and Expectation Gaps: When the SEC website briefly crashed due to news of ETF approvals, the market had already priced in the information 24 hours in advance through "internal leaks," with institutions selling off on the positive news.

Market Law

• Buy the expectation, sell the fact: When the probability of ETF approval rises to 90%, the price increase has already leveraged 80%.

• Profiting from information asymmetry: Bloomberg analysts predict approval progress through regulatory documents, while retail investors are trapped in the "FOMO chasing highs - panic selling" cycle.

3. The "Narrative Economics" of the encryption market: Who is creating signals?

1. The "trinity" of market makers, media, and algorithms

• Market Manipulation: 80% of the TRUMP Token chips are controlled by Trump's camp, and unlocking events can precisely create selling pressure.

• Media Amplifier: "Breaking news" from institutions like Cointelegraph and Bloomberg often becomes a tool for price manipulation, such as "SEC delays ETF approval" triggering panic.

• Algorithm Resonance: Social platforms amplify FOMO emotions through recommendation algorithms, creating a "trend self-reinforcement".

2. The Shift from "Fact-Driven" to "Signal-Driven"

When market fluctuations no longer depend on tangible progress but rather on "the pricing of possibilities", signals become facts. For example:

Trump tweet: A single "America will become the encryption capital" can cause SOL to rise 70% in one day.

Conclusion: The "Truman Show" of the Encryption Market

In this virtual theater constructed by expectations, signals, and algorithms, real events are merely footnotes to the narrative. When Trump raises his glass at the dinner, the market has already turned to the next hot topic - perhaps a tweet from the SEC or an ambiguous policy draft. The only thing investors can be certain of is the uncertainty itself.

Source: BLOCKCHAINWRAP