What do the data between Bitcoin cycles suggest about the next bullish phase?

The structure of the Bitcoin market at the time of writing still seems intact as the Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI) consolidate near the 50% zone – a zone historically seen between exhaustion and new impulses.

In fact, after reaching a peak of over 75% at the beginning of 2024 and a slight decline, the IBCI is currently at a neutral mid-point. Such a zone often implies a pause rather than a peak, especially when supported by the price recovery momentum.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $104,961, while still maintaining a safe distance from overbought levels. This may further reinforce the argument that the market is transitioning rather than peaking.

Source: CryptoQuant## Bitcoin is following an upward channel as bulls defend an important structure

Despite the latest pullback, Bitcoin continues to defend the ascending channel established since April. Price action remains above the important mid-support level, while resistance around $112,000 may be looming ahead.

The relative strength index (RSI) oscillates between 49.89 and 53.14, indicating a lack of direction. Moreover, the trend line remains unbroken, reflecting the confidence of the buyers.

Therefore, as long as this structure remains intact, the potential to reach higher levels will be valid. Especially if the price catalyst returns.

Source: TradingView## On-chain valuation metrics collapse**: Bullish divergence or warning sign?**

The Network Value to Transaction ratio (NVT) decreased by 52.62% to 33.87, and the Network Value to Metcalfe ratio (NVM) fell by 43.35% to 2.49. These sharp declines often imply that the market capitalization may be undervaluing actual trading activity and expanding the user base.

Traditionally, significant drops in these rates often occur before substantial price increases as they reflect the market underpricing on-chain utility.

Therefore, the current hidden divergence is driving the optimistic sentiment of long-term investors who want to participate before the valuation normalizes.

Source: CryptoQuant## D****oes the decrease in stablecoin reserves really signal a bearish trend?

As of the time of writing, the stablecoin ratio on the exchange is at 5.6 after a decrease of 2.38% – suggesting a slight decrease in stablecoin liquidity across exchanges.

However, this is not necessarily negative. Although it may imply an immediate drop in purchasing power, the broader reserves remain strong enough to support large entry points.

In fact, consolidation often occurs before the capital flow continues. Therefore, unless there is a sharp decline, the market will still possess enough capital to drive the upward trend of Bitcoin to continue.

Source: CryptoQuant## Miners stop selling when accumulation dominates

The positioning index of miner (MPI) surged by 49.8%, stabilizing at -0.88. The negative value indicates that the outflow of funds from miners is still much lower than the 1-year average.

Traditionally, such behavior aligns with the holding mentality and reduces selling pressure. Since miners are the main liquidity providers, this group's reduction in selling is often a bullish signal.

Therefore, the MPI increases even though it has negative values, confirming favorable conditions for price recovery. Especially when supported by other positive data.

Source: CryptoQuantWith a stable IBCI during the cycle, the technical structure remains intact and key metrics flash low pricing, Bitcoin may be ready for the next bullish run.

The lack of miners selling, solid liquidity, and low valuation ratios indicate that the current pause may develop into another bull run, provided that the structure remains intact and the macro trend stays stable.

Minh Anh