Bitcoin's 300 Thousand Dollar Rumors: Expert Explains the Reasons Behind the "Lottery Ticket"! - Coin Bulletin

In the Bitcoin options market, investors prefer call options at the $300,000 level as the second most popular choice among contracts expiring in June 2025, highlighting the extent of speculative interest in the cryptocurrency market.

Cryptocurrency market's bold predictions are not limited to just talk; they are backed by real money. These supports often occur in the form of option games that offer significant profit potential with relatively small costs, resembling piano tickets. Currently, the most notable option is the Bitcoin call option listed on Deribit, expiring on June 26, at the $300,000 level. Theoretically, this option is a bet that the spot price of BTC will triple by the end of the first half of the year, rising above $300,000.

The hope of winning the lottery

During the printing process, there were over 5,000 contracts active in the June expiry option at the level of 300,000 dollars, which means an open position of 484 million dollars. This is the second most popular option bet within the important June expiry and is only behind the call option at the level of 110,000 dollars.

Crypto currency market maker GSR's derivatives trader Spencer Hallarn commented on the high open position in the $300,000 option of the so-called non-existent (OTM), saying, "Perhaps people enjoy buying lottery tickets. As evidenced by the call curve, there are always those who want hyperinflation protection."

Deep out-of-the-money options require a significant movement in the underlying asset's price to become profitable, and are therefore significantly cheaper compared to those that are near or below the asset's current market price. However, if the market rises, the return can be quite substantial, which makes them akin to purchasing lottery tickets with low probability but large payout potential.

The reasons behind it

GSR trader Simranjeet Singh stated while revealing a large open position for the option at the 300 thousand dollar level, "I suspect that this is mostly a bet on the 'wingman possibility' of the strategic reserve of BTC being crypto-friendly due to US regulations and the accumulation of relatively cheap wings raised at the beginning of the administration."

On Friday, Senator Cynthia Lummis expressed that she is "especially pleased" with President Trump's support for the BITCOIN Bill. Lummis made a statement on the X platform saying, "The BITCOIN Bill is the only solution to our nation's $36 trillion debt. I am grateful for a forward-thinking president who not only recognizes this but takes action."