Bitcoin Market Cycle Indicator Suggests Upcoming Price Surge, Analyst Says

According to a recent post by CryptoQuant Quicktake from contributor burakkemeci, Bitcoin (BTC) is starting to show signs of a trend reversal after several weeks of fall. Notably, BTC surged past the $100,000 mark yesterday for the first time since February 3. Is Bitcoin on the verge of reversing its trend? At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at just above $100,000, down about 5.2% from the all-time high (ATH) of $108,786, set earlier this year on January 20. This leading cryptocurrency has seen an impressive recovery of over 20% from the recent low of $74,508 recorded on April 6. In his analysis, crypto analyst burakkemeci mentioned the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator, stating that it is emitting early signs of a potential bullish trend reversal. The analyst noted: With Bitcoin rising back above $100,000, the indicator has started flashing a bullish signal once again - the first time in several weeks. Although the signal remains weak (coefficient: 0.029), the mere appearance of a positive change is quite encouraging.

To explain, the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator is an on-chain tool that tracks long-term and short-term market sentiment by comparing price momentum and investor behavior trends. It uses two main components – the 30-day and 365-day moving averages (MA) – to determine the shift between bull and bear cycles. Importantly, analysts point out that the 30-day Bull-Bear MA line has started to trend upwards. If this metric surpasses the 365-day MA line, historical trends suggest that Bitcoin could enter a parabolic price growth phase. Recent macroeconomic developments may continue to support the bullish narrative of Bitcoin. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor, recently emphasized the relationship between the global M2 money supply and BTC prices. Bittel has shared a stacked chart of BTC prices with M2 money supply, adjusted with a 12-week lag. The data shows that global liquidity has increased significantly since the beginning of 2025, implying that BTC may follow this trend and continue to rise in the coming months.

Warning signs still remain for BTC Despite the recent strength, not all signals are bullish. Analysts warn that the current rally is accompanied by strong profit-taking activity, increasing the likelihood of a local top formation. Moreover, recent analysis shows that the demand momentum for BTC has not yet escaped the negative zone. The analyst notes that such market behavior is mainly prevalent during the late-cycle distribution phase or the macro-level consolidation phase.

That said, the (Relative Strength Index RSI) of Bitcoin is starting to reflect a new bullish momentum. At the time of reporting, BTC is trading at $103,444, up 4% in the last 24 hours.