Will ETH rise to 10,000 USD in the new cycle? Three ecosystem projects that cannot be ignored.

Written by: Trend Research

Since the release of the Trend Research report on April 24, 2025, ETH has risen from around $1800 to nearly $2400, with an increase of about 30% within a month. The forecast before the report was even more optimistic, starting at $1450. As an asset with a scale of hundreds of billions, it represents a rare opportunity for large funds to achieve high returns in the short term. The main reasons for the strong bullish sentiment at that time included: ETH still possesses robust financial data, and its status as a critical infrastructure in the crypto space remains unchanged; the significant adjustment magnitude from short-term highs (over 60% drop in 4 months)); the large scale of shorts in the derivatives market, with the bottom spot volume increasing to important support and resistance areas after the release; and the continuous layout of traditional finance along with gradual inflows into ETFs. Currently, our prediction for ETH is that we believe it can break through $5000 in the long term, and in an optimistic scenario, if BTC rises to over $300,000 in this cycle, ETH could potentially reach $10,000, while capturing long-term opportunities related to the ETH ecosystem.

1. Valuation prediction for ETH

An important background for the new valuation of ETH is the capture of the trend of key digital assets merging with traditional finance. We note that BTC, as the most important digital asset, has opened the curtain for being included as a strategic reserve asset by various U.S. states following the approval of the spot ETF, gradually becoming a scale expansion of dollar assets and a certain degree of strategic alternative. Currently, it ranks 6th in global asset market capitalization, with U.S. BTC spot ETFs managing approximately $118.6 billion in assets, accounting for about 6% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. The trend of merging crypto assets with traditional finance is no longer in doubt. CZ stated in an interview in Dubai in May that Bitcoin's price in this market cycle could reach between $500,000 and $1 million.

ETH still possesses robust financial data, and its position as the most important infrastructure in crypto finance has not changed. The total TVL of Ethereum DeFi is approximately $60 billion, accounting for over 53% of the global DeFi market. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $124 billion, representing over 50% of the total market capitalization of stablecoins globally. The total AUM of Ethereum ETFs is $7.2 billion, and BlackRock's tokenized money market fund BUIDL has an investment scale of approximately $2.7 billion in the Ethereum ecosystem, making up 92% of its total assets.

After reaching a peak of $4000 three times in 2024, ETH quickly fell to around $1300, with an ATH of over $4800. Based on the following potential factors, we predict that the ETH price will reach $5000 in this cycle:

• The imminent end of the US QT and the further beginning of interest rate cuts
• The newly appointed SEC chair may bring breakthroughs in the promotion of tokenization on the ETH chain and legislation related to staking.
• The management and roadmap of the ETH Foundation should be rectified to maintain a certain level of infrastructure innovation.
• Maintain a stable growth on-chain financial ecosystem

Under long-term optimistic predictions, ETH is expected to challenge $10,000 in the new cycle, provided the following conditions are met:

• BTC rises above 300k USD
• ETH brings brilliant infrastructure innovations beneficial to DeFi
• US institutions are driving ETH to become an important native venue for asset tokenization.
• The demonstration effect drives global asset tokenization

Two, Three ETH Ecosystem Projects Not to Be Ignored

1. UNI(Uniswap): The largest DEX protocol in the crypto market.

Uniswap is the earliest and largest Dex protocol in the crypto market, with a TVL of 4.7 billion USD and a daily trading volume exceeding 2 billion USD, generating 900 million USD in revenue over the year. UNI is fully circulated, with about 40% locked for governance, currently having a circulating market value of 4 billion USD and an FDV of 6.6 billion.

Currently, there is a certain decoupling between the tokenomics design of UNI and the protocol revenue. The revenue generated by the protocol is not automatically distributed to UNI token holders. UNI mainly serves as a governance token, allowing users to control the use of the treasury through voting, and can indirectly have a positive effect on the price of UNI through governance proposals, such as in 2024, when the DAO voted to repurchase 10 million UNI.

The decoupling between protocol income and token revenue is mainly due to the SEC's risk considerations regarding the qualitative regulation of securities. Currently, as the regulation of encryption in the United States is gradually becoming more lenient and standardized, there may be an upgrade possibility for UNI's protocol allocation in the future.

Recently, the main progress of Uniswap is in the areas of Uniswap V4 and Unichain expansion, as well as the preliminary activation of the "Fee Switch" mechanism.

2、AAVE(Aave): The largest lending protocol in the cryptocurrency market.

AAVE is the largest lending protocol in the crypto market, with a TVL of $23 billion, generating $450 million in revenue per year, and the token is 100% circulating, with a current market cap of $3.3 billion.

Similar to UNI, the protocol's revenue does not have a direct dividend relationship with AAVE, but rather influences it indirectly through governance.

Recently, Aave's main progress includes the development of Aave V4, the cross-chain expansion of the native stablecoin GHO, and the advancement of the Horizon project for RWA business exploration.

3、ENA(Ethena): The largest synthetic stablecoin protocol in the crypto market.

Since 2025, Ethena's synthetic dollar USDe has become the third largest dollar-pegged asset in the encryption market, with a issuance scale only behind USDT and USDC. USDe is also the only synthetic stablecoin among them. In terms of returns, Ethena is also a highly profitable Defi protocol, generating $315 million in revenue over the year. ENA currently has a market capitalization of $2.18 billion and an FDV of $5.6 billion.

Recently, Ethena has made comprehensive business progress: Ethena will collaborate with Securitize to launch the "Converge" blockchain network, aimed at bridging traditional finance and DeFi, planning to launch a stablecoin product iUSDe for traditional financial institutions, integrating its stablecoin sUSDe into the Telegram application, and is also building an ecosystem based on its stablecoin sUSDe, including a perpetual and spot exchange Ethereal based on its own application chain and an on-chain options and structured products protocol Derive.