The Return of the Bitcoin King: Six Charts Decoding the Capital Dark War Behind $100,000

Original Title: Bitcoin’s stunning comeback in six charts

Original author: Andrew Flanagan

Source of the original text:

Compiled by: Daisy, Mars Finance

J.P. Morgan analyzes the performance of leading cryptocurrencies in April

Bitcoin has outperformed gold over the past year.

The outlook for Bitcoin continues to be positive.

This marks a sharp turnaround compared to a few months ago when Bitcoin was hovering around $80,000. Research from JPMorgan found that the price of Bitcoin continued to strengthen in April, with an even more rapid increase in May.

In the previous weeks, the market suffered a heavy blow — the announcement of comprehensive tariffs by U.S. President Trump triggered panic over a global trade war, leading to widespread pressure on international markets.

JPMorgan pointed out in a report on May 14 that although Trump advocates supporting cryptocurrency policies, he failed to drive up cryptocurrency prices and achieve regulatory reform during his hundred days in office.

However, as Trump made concessions on trade issues, coupled with more signs of global cryptocurrency adoption emerging at the corporate and national levels, market pessimism has gradually faded.

"The foundation of the Bitcoin bull market has never been so solid," tweeted David Marcus, former PayPal executive and well-known Bitcoin supporter, on May 10. "Buckle up."

This top cryptocurrency has risen 10% since May, currently priced at $103,500.

JPMorgan outlines its recovery trajectory through six charts.

Revaluation of Bitcoin's value

The sharp decline at the beginning of the year has now reversed, with inflows into exchange-traded products, including Bitcoin ETFs issued by BlackRock and Fidelity, turning positive, achieving the best monthly performance since January.

Total Crypto Market Capitalization Jumps to $2.9tr (+10% MoM) at End of April, but Volumes Remain Muted this Month Source: JPMorgan.

JPMorgan pointed out that BlackRock's IBIT is undoubtedly the biggest winner in April, as the fund accounted for 84% of the total inflow of Bitcoin ETFs, with a total inflow amount of 3 billion USD in April.

U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETP Sales of $2,978mn Post Best Month in April Since January 2025 Source: JPMorgan

Dune Analytics shows that the Bitcoin ETF market is currently dominated by BlackRock's IBIT, with a market share of 52%.

According to DefiLlama, Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated $96 billion in funding since their launch in 2024, while the managed asset size of Ethereum ETFs is only $5 billion.

Bitcoin value "recovers lost ground"

The market in April was dominated by the turmoil caused by Trump's tariffs, with significant fluctuations occurring until the recent pause in tariff increases and the reaching of an agreement which then drove prices to rebound.

The Nasdaq index, a tech stock hub historically correlated with Bitcoin's movements, was about 15% lower than the level on Trump's inauguration day for most of April.

As Bitcoin has now strongly broken through the $100,000 barrier, the Nasdaq has also recovered simultaneously. JPMorgan pointed out that "most of Bitcoin's increase this month was concentrated in the last week."

Bitcoin Mkt Cap Regains Ground and Ends April at $1.87tr, Up +14% MoM Source: JPMorgan.

The Contest with Gold

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has touted Bitcoin's potential as a safe-haven asset similar to gold.

However, JPMorgan's research found that this potential has yet to materialize.

At the same time, Bitcoin's volatility continues to decrease. According to CoinGlass data, JPMorgan pointed out that the 30-day volatility of Bitcoin and gold has shown a synchronized downward trend.

30-Day Volatility Falls Similar Percentages for both Bitcoin and Gold Throughout April Source: JPMorgan.

In the standardized comparison (setting the initial value of two or more assets equal at the beginning of a specific period to compare performance, as shown in the chart below), as of the end of March, Bitcoin has increased by 15%, while gold has risen by 5%.

Indexed Performance of Bitcoin vs. Gold Over Past Year, Through April 2025 Source: JPMorgan.

Cryptocurrency stocks soar

The total market capitalization of publicly listed cryptocurrency companies has shrunk by 34% from nearly $120 billion historical high after the November 2024 election to $76 billion by the end of April.

April brings a glimmer of hope, with a 19% month-on-month increase in total market value.

JPMorgan pointed out that Galaxy Digital announced plans to go public in the U.S. in April, becoming the biggest winner in market capitalization growth for the month, with an increase of 45%.

This week, it was reported that Coinbase will be included in the S&P 500 index starting from May 19. This news led to a surge in its stock price by 16%, and according to data from JPMorgan, the company's total market capitalization increased by 18% month-over-month.

Market Cap of Public Crypto Companies Improves to ~$76bn at End of April (+19% MoM) but Still -34% Off from 4Q24 Peak Source: JPMorgan.