Bitcoin Hits Resistance Level—3 Signs Indicating Price Will Drop to $99K

Bitcoin (BTC) has traded in a narrow range over the past ten days, fluctuating between $101k and $105k. According to our market data, this asset has increased by 2% in the last 24 hours, trading at $105k.

Interestingly, analysts believe there could be a correction that causes the asset to drop to $99,000. To support this analysis, three reasons have been cited: Weakening Momentum The Bitcoin technical chart has shown lower highs, indicating a weakening momentum. According to analysts, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of Bitcoin has also reached the overbought territory above 70. Furthermore, the price is trending towards the upper limits of December 2024 and February 2025, confirming the potential for a downturn. Considering other metrics, we see that the Auction Market Theory has indicated that Bitcoin may continue to decline to find support at $93,000. Drop-in Address On-chain data shows that the daily active addresses have decreased over the past few days. According to our analyst's interpretation, this implies that investors have left the Bitcoin blockchain. The last time this happened in large numbers was in February, when the number of active addresses dropped below the annual average, reaching 1.1 million. At that time, the daily trading volume also decreased from 402 thousand to 350 thousand. If the current trend continues, Bitcoin may lose support at $101,000 and then at $100,000. In the worst-case scenario, this asset could drop to a low of $84,000. Macroeconomic Conditions Currently, investors are still uncertain about the interest rate cut announcement. According to CME Fed Watch, there is only an 8.3% chance of an interest rate cut in June. Meanwhile, the chance of an interest rate cut in July has increased to 34.2%.

Emphasizing this, Jim Bianco's research also suggests there is a 51% chance that interest rates will be cut in September. As long as these estimates remain, the future of Bitcoin will continue to be pessimistic unless a more significant pricing factor forces an increase in price. Meanwhile, Bank of America had previously predicted that there could be four interest rate cuts this year, as stated in our previous article. Contrary to this pessimistic outlook, analyst Scott Melker has predicted that Bitcoin could overcome all difficulties and reach $250,000 by the end of the year. 250K this year, it's totally possible... In the past, it fluctuated about three times compared to the S&P. Now, it's only less than twice... The more institutional money, the more Wall Street money, and the more long-term holders participate, the less volatile it will be. In order for the asset to return to an upward trend, it will need to completely reverse the current trend by making a decisive move above $104,000. As stated in our previous newsletter, a subsequent move above $109,000 could trigger the asset to begin a new surge. Analysts also hinted that any sudden surge could be triggered by strong accumulation by whales. As noted in our recent short newsletter, whales have purchased 83,105 BTC in just 30 days.