Is the Bitcoin supercycle coming? Will BTC reach $150,000?

Written by: Bitcoin Magazine

Compiled by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

Bitcoin is expected to soar in 2025, sparking speculation about a historic Bitcoin supercycle. After experiencing turmoil at the beginning of the year, new momentum, a revival of market sentiment, and bullish indicators have analysts pondering: Are we on the verge of a repeat of the Bitcoin bull market of 2017? This Bitcoin price analysis explores cycle comparisons, investor behavior, and trends among long-term holders to assess the possibility of an explosive phase in this round of the cryptocurrency market cycle.

Comparison of the 2025 Bitcoin Cycle with Previous Bull Markets

The recent surge in Bitcoin prices has exceeded people's expectations. According to the "Bitcoin Growth Since Cycle Low" chart, despite facing macro challenges and pullbacks, Bitcoin's trend closely aligns with the cyclical trends of 2016-2017 and 2020-2021.

Figure 1: The bullish price trend of Bitcoin in 2025 is similar to the previous cycle trends.

Historically, the peaks of the Bitcoin market cycles typically occur about 1100 days after the lows. The current cycle has lasted about 900 days, and there may still be several hundred days of potential explosive growth left for the Bitcoin price. But can investor behavior and market mechanisms support the arrival of the Bitcoin supercycle in 2025?

Bitcoin Investor Behavior: Echoes of the 2017 Bull Market

To measure the psychology of cryptocurrency investors, the two-year rolling MVRV-Z score provides key insights. This advanced indicator takes into account lost tokens, illiquid supply, the growing ETF and institutional holdings, as well as changes in the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders.

Last year, when the price of Bitcoin reached about $73,000, the MVRV-Z score hit 3.39 - a very high level, but not unprecedented. A pullback followed, reminiscent of the mid-cycle consolidation seen in 2017. Notably, multiple high score peaks appeared before the final parabolic rebound of the 2017 Bitcoin cycle.

Figure 2: The MVRV-Z score is similar to the Bitcoin bull market trend in 2017.

Using the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API for cross-cycle Bitcoin analysis, it has been found that its correlation with the 2013 double peak cycle behavior is as high as 91.5%. Two significant peaks have occurred so far—one before the halving (74,000 USD) and one after the halving (over 100,000 USD). The third peak, which may set a new historical high, could mark the first occurrence of a triple peak bull market for Bitcoin, potentially signaling a Bitcoin supercycle.

Figure 3: Cross-cycle behavioral correlation using rolling MVRV-Z scores and price actions.

In 2017, the cycle showed a behavioral correlation of 58.6%, while the similarity of investor behavior in 2021 was lower, but the correlation of its Bitcoin price trend was about 75%.

Long-term Bitcoin holders have strong confidence.

The trend of holding coins for over a year shows that even with rising prices, the proportion of Bitcoin that hasn't moved for a year or more continues to increase—this is rare during a bull market and reflects the strong confidence of long-term holders.

Figure 4: The change rate of the holding trend for over a year indicates that the market is full of confidence in the future price of Bitcoin.

Historically, a sharp rise in the rate of coin holding changes signals an important bottom, while a sharp decline marks a top. Currently, this indicator is at a neutral turning point, far from reaching a peak distribution, which suggests that long-term Bitcoin investors expect prices to rise significantly.

Is the Bitcoin super cycle still in further consolidation?

Can Bitcoin replicate the parabolic rise of 2017? It is possible, but this cycle may pave a unique path that blends historical patterns with the dynamics of the modern cryptocurrency market.

Figure 5: The exponential growth replicating the 2017 Bitcoin price may be ambitious.

We may be approaching the third major peak of this cycle - a first in Bitcoin's history. Whether this will trigger a full melt-up of the Bitcoin supercycle remains uncertain, but key indicators suggest that BTC is far from its peak. Supply is tight, long-term holders remain steadfast, and demand continues to rise, largely due to the growth of stablecoins, institutional Bitcoin investments, and ETF liquidity.

Conclusion: Can Bitcoin experience a rebound to $150,000?

While it is tempting to make a direct comparison of Bitcoin with the situations in 2017 or 2013, Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset. As a market that is becoming increasingly mature and institutionalized, its behavior is evolving, but the potential for explosive growth in Bitcoin still exists.

The historical cycle correlation of Bitcoin remains high, investor behavior is healthy, and technical indicators suggest upward potential. With no obvious signs of capitulation, profit-taking, or macroeconomic weakness, the momentum for Bitcoin's price to continue rising is building. Whether this will lead to a rebound of $150,000 or even higher, the Bitcoin bull market of 2025 may go down in history.