Bold prediction: Expert sets the time for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 in 2025

After Bitcoin (BTC) set a new historical peak last week, a group of experts believes that the upward momentum of this cryptocurrency is not yet over — it could even reach $200,000 by 2025.

In an analysis published on TradingView on May 23, the TradingShot research team pointed out that historical patterns and technical signals are painting a positive outlook for Bitcoin, with a high likelihood of reaching $200,000 by the end of this year.

Comparing Bitcoin price history across cycles (weekly frame) | Source: TradingShot/TradingViewAccording to the report, Bitcoin is currently in the "modest" growth cycle the likes of which have never been seen before — something that the expert group explains as an inevitable consequence of the Theory of Diminishing Returns (.

This theory suggests that as the market matures, profit margins will gradually narrow. While Bitcoin has experienced explosive price increases in previous cycles, in the recent cycle, although the momentum has eased, it still shows stability and significant growth potential.

To illustrate the above argument, TradingShot has stacked the previous bullish cycles of Bitcoin — including the periods 2009–2011, 2012–2013, 2015–2017, and 2019–2021 — for comparison.

The results show a clear transformation: from a strong initial acceleration model to a more mature and stable trend, resembling the behavior of traditional financial markets. In particular, the two most recent cycles )2015–2017 and 2019–2021( demonstrate a fairly similar price trajectory, although there are still short-term adjustments before continuing the main trend.

Bitcoin is following previous cycles

Looking ahead, the current cycle of Bitcoin seems to be moving within a clear upward channel. After a temporary divergence phase expected in February 2025, the king of cryptocurrencies is anticipated to quickly return to its historical growth trajectory. The recent six-week recovery further strengthens confidence in that outlook.

Based on technical analysis models, TradingShot predicts that the Bitcoin cycle peak is likely to occur between October and December 2025, with prices fluctuating in the range of $150,000 to $200,000.

"Based on previous cycles, the price peak is likely to form in the fourth quarter of 2025. Instead of setting a fixed target, choosing the right timing to exit the position may yield better results, although the peak price range is still expected to be between $150,000 and $200,000," the expert noted.

Notably, after surpassing the new record of $111,000, the optimistic sentiment still envelops analysts, with the expectation that the upward momentum will continue to be sustained in the coming weeks.

For example, veteran trader Peter Brandt noted that the technical pattern of Bitcoin after this breakout is opening up the possibility of reaching the mark of $150,000 by August 2025.

Sharing a common optimistic perspective, analyst Gert van Lagen also made a positive forecast in a post on X on May 24. He emphasized that, looking at the long-term picture, Bitcoin continues to steadily move along an exponential growth curve — rising from just $1 to over $100,000 — through familiar repeating price patterns such as the "cup and handle".

![200k-btc])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-97810168cd72e1aa412ec738e6344ff7(Source: Gert van Lagen/XAccording to him, if history repeats itself, the upcoming price peak could very well be three to six times higher than the current level. He emphasized that the growth of Bitcoin is not merely linear, but exponential in nature — reflecting the explosive characteristics of this market.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $108,904, down over 1% in the past 24 hours. However, on a weekly basis, the asset has increased by more than 5%.

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-bb56f4ce4bbda5b028340b22d2540c0a(BTC/USDT Daily Chart | Source: TradingViewNotably, the overall sentiment around Bitcoin remains positive. The current price is significantly higher than the simple moving averages )SMA( 50-day and 200-day, reinforcing the strong bullish trend of this cryptocurrency.

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