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The Dogecoin chart is becoming ugly—This price level could cause panic.
Dogecoin is gradually losing altitude after a month of growth that peaked at a daily high of 0.259 dollars on May 11 before the upward momentum was broken. The memecoin is changing hands at nearly 0.228 dollars today, with a network market cap of about 34 billion dollars and down 69 dollars from the peak in 2021. From a purely statistical perspective, this level of decline is modest: Dogecoin is still up about 35% from the floor level of $0.164 at the beginning of May, but the lower peak pattern that has emerged since mid-month has led traders to focus more on whether the momentum of the token from April to May is a correction or an impulsive drive. Is the price of Dogecoin about to collapse? Technical analysis expert More Crypto Online argues in the latest summary on YouTube that the structure of this price rally "increases in three stages like many other cryptocurrency charts until the peak on Friday," lacking the five-wave push typically needed to sustain the momentum and has reversed into what looks like "a small five-wave decline." The Elliottician stated: "Doge has increased in three waves like many other cryptocurrency charts until Friday's peak," he told viewers at the beginning of the clip, while emphasizing that the price increase from the bottom on April 26 "is completely unconvincing." The essence of his argument is that the rally of Dogecoin from $0.164 to the peak on May 11, which is $0.259, never created a five-wave structure that Elliott wave theory associates with trend sustaining moves. Instead, the price action has begun what he considers "a small five-wave move downward," thus signaling that the rally from April to May is likely only forming wave B of a larger ABC correction. "As soon as the price breaks below the red dotted line at $0.21, the scenario for a larger pullback in the yellow count will be confirmed," he said, adding that there is currently nothing on the chart that invalidates that view. The "yellow" scenario envisions an extended wave C occurring within five sub-waves and targeting the Fibonacci retracement cluster of 38.2%–78.6% originating from the rally in April. In simple numbers, this corresponds to 0.199–0.183 dollars in the upcoming sessions. "Checking the level of $0.19,9 to $0.183 cents in the upcoming sessions seems to be quite a feasible outcome," More Crypto Online stated. "We have had five declines from yesterday's high, so we must be ready for possible recoveries that may only be corrective and then a strong decline in the third wave." That roadmap leaves room for a short recovery—he calls it phase 2 of C—to explore the initial resistance level at $0.23.3 to $0.24.7. However, the analyst warns that any recovery should only be considered a "correction"; a decisive hourly close above $0.247 is needed to revive the bullish "orange" volume, allowing for further extension of the previous rally. He acknowledged that: "Any break above 0.247 cents could mean that we are in a phase of expansion to the upside," although he quickly added that such a result "would once again be invalidated if it breaks below the dotted red line." The macro backdrop is not favorable for Dogecoin. With Treasury bond yields rising to new highs this quarter and the dominance of Fitcoin gradually increasing, liquidity has drained from high beta altcoins. Even the launch of the Grayscale Dogecoin Trust in January, which helped channel institutional money into this asset earlier this year, could not prevent the rotation out of peripheral tokens during the risk-off phase in May. From a market structure point of view, the token's immediate fate depends on whether buyers can defend the $0.21 pivot level outlined in the analysis. A daily close below that level would allow licensed sellers to move towards the $0.19 level, while breaking the $0.247 cents barrier is the only development that the analyst acknowledged could "reduce the likelihood of that decline."