Bitcoin oscillated and broke through, then迎来上攻窗口: the pump channel has quietly opened.

Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating upward, but the rise has been relatively limited. The current price is at a high position within the fluctuation zone. Several indicators show that short-term long positions are strengthening, but there is clear resistance above, and market sentiment is becoming cautious.

In the short term, the price is expected to test the key resistance level around 109500, but if it fails to break through effectively, the price may fluctuate within a narrow range between 108800 and 109500 or even pull back.

1. K-line pattern: The small time frame "converging triangle" has been broken, and the short-term bullish signals are strengthened.

Observing the 15-minute candlestick chart, Bitcoin has currently broken through the upper edge of a converging triangle. The price has steadily rebounded from the low point around $106,000, forming a typical "W-shaped bottom" pattern, indicating a structure that technically shows a short-term bottoming has been completed. A "cloud cover" pattern has appeared, and recently the "three white soldiers" pattern has emerged in the bottom area, suggesting that the rebound is likely to continue but caution is needed regarding short-term pressure.

The AiCoin candlestick chart shows that from the early morning to the morning of May 29, Bitcoin broke through multiple short-term moving average resistances, especially the 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day moving averages, which have formed a "long positions arrangement," with the price center continuously rising. The 200-period long moving average is still in the lower consolidation zone, indicating that the price is still in the recovery phase, but short-term momentum is building up.

2. Fund movement: The trading concentration area is near $109,000, with large orders testing a breakthrough imminent.

Chip distribution: The chips are concentrated in the range of 108850-108934, indicating that the market is in a key pressure zone, with clear resistance levels but limited upside potential.

However, it is worth noting that from the OBV (On-Balance Volume) perspective, the OBV has currently formed an upward turning point and has broken through the short-term moving average, indicating a trend of net capital inflow. The MACD has also turned positive, with the main line DIF crossing above the DEA to form a golden cross, and the momentum bars continue to expand, which is a strong short-term bullish signal.

The capital distribution shows that there are signs of some large orders testing positions. If the price can stabilize above 108,500 dollars, it may trigger a liquidity overflow effect, pushing the price to attack the previous high of 110,700 dollars.

3. Technical Indicators Summary: The divergence between long positions and short positions is narrowing, and key indicators lean towards long positions.

MACD: The current 15-minute MACD has produced a golden cross, with DIF moving away from DEA, and green bars diminishing while red bars are starting to appear. This indicates that the bearish momentum has been fully released and the bulls are taking control, especially after breaking through the upper edge of the triangle, leading to a subsequent surge in price, validating the effectiveness of the technical breakout.

RSI: The RSI is currently operating above 55.4, far from the overbought zone but above the 50 midline, reflecting a market sentiment shift from "wait-and-see" to "bullish." The RSI has not shown any divergence, and the momentum remains healthy; if it breaks above 70 in the future, it may enter an accelerated rise zone.

KDJ: The K, D, and J lines are in a long positions opening state, with the current K value at 64.7 and D value at 68.6. Although they are at a high level, they have not yet dulled, indicating that a short-term rise is expected to continue. If the J value once again hits the overbought zone without a quick pullback, it may trigger a short-term rise extension.

4. CME Gap: "The upper gap has not been filled" has become a key driving force for the recent rise.

CME Bitcoin futures often leave "price gaps" due to weekend market closures, and these gaps have strong "attractiveness" and "repair inertia" in the market. Currently, there are still unfilled gaps above:

Gap range: approximately between $109,600 and $111,000 (CME market)

The range has not yet been filled, and the market generally views this as the "price return point."

The current BTC spot price is testing the 109000 area, and the CME gap is expected to become a "technical magnet point."

If the price stabilizes between 108500-109000 USD with increased volume, the market's willingness to fill the gap will significantly rise, and it may even quickly fill the gap within one or two days, forming a classic path of "gap filling - accelerated rise."

5. Fundamentals and news: Continuous inflow of ETF funds + Vance's speech boosts confidence

On May 29, during a speech at the Bitcoin 2025 conference, U.S. Vice President Vance stated, "Cryptocurrency is a hedge against Washington's poor policies. Cryptocurrency is a hedge against soaring inflation."

Bitcoin can play a positive role in the country's future strategy. Under Trump's leadership, the crypto industry has finally welcomed true supporters and allies in the White House. Our government prioritizes eliminating the rules, red tape, and legal battles against cryptocurrency imposed by the previous administration.

Once the GENIUS Act is implemented, it is expected to significantly expand the application of stablecoins as a digital payment system, providing convenience for millions of Americans. At the same time, this will protect coin holders and enhance market transparency.

Currently, around fifty million Americans hold Bitcoin, and I believe this number will soon increase to one hundred million. I still hold a significant amount of Bitcoin.

The U.S. consumer confidence index for May fell sharply, with the market betting that monetary policy will return to easing.

In addition, on May 29, according to Trader T's monitoring, the net inflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF yesterday was $433.66 million.

6. Summary and Prediction: Key resistance at 109,500-111,000 USD, once broken will enter a new round of main upward wave.

Combining the multiple signals mentioned above, Bitcoin has completed a triangle oscillation breakout in the short term, with good momentum recovery and significant capital inflow. The gap above CME and institutional accumulation create overlapping favorable conditions, with a short-term target price possibly pointing to 111000 USD.

But be aware of the following risks:

If the price is suppressed again by $109,000 and falls below $106,000, it may create a "false breakout".

If the trading volume does not continue to expand, it will limit the continuation of the rise.

ETF funds need to have continuous net inflows to constitute a true trend reversal.

Suggestion: The current stage is suitable for short-term investment operations, and you can pay attention to the breakout situation near the resistance level.

If the price breaks above the 109500 area, you can appropriately chase the rise and set take profit and stop loss points.

If the price falls back to the support level near 108800, consider buying on dips, but be sure to strictly control your position and pay attention to changes in market trading volume.

For long-term investors, it is recommended to remain on the sidelines and wait for the price to stabilize above the mid-term moving average before considering adding positions.