Will Q3 be a breakout period for Bitcoin?

According to Nick Forster, the founder of the on-chain options protocol Derive, Bitcoin may be entering a consolidation phase after recent strong fluctuations. Although this coin has seen impressive growth, surpassing $111,000 on May 22, Forster believes that the current price movements of Bitcoin are not indicative of an immediate breakout, but rather a process of "consolidation" or "solidifying" its value.

"Although the recent price surge to over 111,000 dollars is very impressive, the current price movements indicate that this is a consolidation phase, not a sign of an imminent breakthrough."

According to Forster, the market needs time to "digest the recent gains" and prepare for future price increases.

Consolidation phase helps the market prepare for the next rally

The consolidation phase of Bitcoin's price can be seen as a "healthy pause" before entering a new growth cycle, Forster noted. This phase is not a signal of a price decline, but a time for the market to adjust and prepare for the next price increase. In particular, with the recent recovery, Bitcoin has grown more than 11% in the past 30 days, reaching a record high of 111,970 dollars on May 22 before falling to 105,316 dollars at the current time.

Bitcoin 1-Day Price Chart | Source: TradingViewBitcoin has experienced significant growth recently, but consolidation is necessary to maintain stability and avoid excessive volatility that could impact investor sentiment.

The crypto market may face changes in the near future

The forecast for the future of Bitcoin currently still has many uncertain factors. Researcher Sminston With stated that the price of BTC could increase by 100% to 200%, with the peak cycle possibly reaching $220,000 – $330,000. However, according to trader Apsk32, a more reasonable target for 2025 is that Bitcoin will reach $220,000.

An important factor affecting the Bitcoin market in the near term is political and economic decisions. Forster said the U.S. International Trade Court's decision on May 28 eased concerns about trade-induced inflation, when the court halted President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. Shortly thereafter, however, on May 29, the Federal Court of Appeals ruled allowing Trump to continue the temporary tariff regime while he appealed the trade court's decision. This is a factor that can create short-term volatility, but it is also not the main factor that determines Bitcoin's long-term trend.

In addition, the decision of the Federal Reserve (Fed) on June 18 regarding interest rates will also be an important factor to watch, as it could directly affect market sentiment and the flow of investment into risky assets such as Bitcoin.

Q3 may surprise

Usually, Q3 is a "weak" phase for Bitcoin, with an average growth rate of only 6.03% since 2013. However, Forster believes that the scenario may be different in 2025. He thinks that favorable legal developments and the ongoing interest from major institutions could create stronger momentum for Bitcoin in Q3.

Data from CoinGlass shows that while Q3 is usually a consolidation phase for Bitcoin, Q4 is the time when this coin often experiences a strong breakout, with an average profit of up to 85.42%.

The inflow of capital into Bitcoin ETFs has not yet reflected in the price

Forster also pointed out another important factor related to Bitcoin recently: large inflows into spot Bitcoin ETF funds. Although these funds attract billions of dollars into Bitcoin, the price of the coin has not yet increased proportionately to the inflow of investment. Forster emphasizes that in May, BlackRock's IBIT alone attracted over 6.2 billion dollars, but the impact on Bitcoin's price is still unclear.

Notably, in the trading week ending on May 23, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total of $2.75 billion in inflows, yet the price of Bitcoin remained stable without any strong breakout. Forster suggests that this could be due to the nature of ETF investments, as institutional investors seek investment opportunities without directly impacting the spot market price.

Bitcoin is currently entering a consolidation phase, and although there are no signs of an immediate breakout, this does not mean that the coin will decrease in value. The market needs time to digest the recent strong fluctuations and prepare for new opportunities in the future. Macroeconomic factors, such as the Fed's decisions and trade issues, will continue to play a crucial role in determining the trend of Bitcoin in the coming time.

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