Bitcoin falls below $104,000, but data shows traders are preparing for a recovery.

From May 27 to May 30, Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 5.5%, testing the level of $104,000 for the first time in eleven days. Despite this adjustment, professional traders remain optimistic, which is reflected in the BTC derivative data and stable demand for stablecoins in China.

The volatility of BTC is almost synchronized with U.S. government bonds, indicating that macroeconomic factors may be the cause of this weakening after reaching an all-time high of $111,970 on May 22. The trade war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump has made investors more cautious.

! Bitcoin drops below $104,000 US Treasury yield futures 10-year (trái) against Bitcoin/USD (phải) | Source: TradingViewThe 10-year US Treasury yield peaked at 4.60% on May 22 but then fell to 4.42% as investors sought safety from government-backed assets. This decrease in yields indicates that traders accept lower profits, reflecting an increase in buying activity. This change coincided with Bitcoin's $7,900 decline from May 22 to 30.

Annual premium for 2-month Bitcoin futures contracts | Source: laevitas.chThe annual premium for Bitcoin futures contracts is currently at 7%, unchanged from May 27, when BTC was trading near $110,000. This level falls within a neutral range of 5% to 10%, suggesting it is unlikely to be the cause of the correction. More importantly, there is no evidence that excessive leverage contributed to the record high on May 22.

! Bitcoin drops below $104,000Open-rate synthetic Bitcoin futures, BTC | Source: CoinGlassThe total number of open BTC futures contracts, equivalent to 700,000 BTC on May 30, was only 2% lower than the level recorded on May 27, indicating no significant decline in traders' interest in leveraged positions. In fact, the liquidation of bullish BTC futures positions totaled $323 million in four days, accounting for less than 0.5% of all open contracts.

! Bitcoin drops below $104,000Bitcoin 30-day selection with a delta deviation of 25% (put-call) | Source: laevitas.chThe Bitcoin options market also showed a limited reaction to a retest of the $104,000 level. The 25% delta deviation remains in the neutral range of -6% to +6%, indicating that traders are pricing the upside and downside opportunities equally. Usually, when whales and market makers predict the next downtrend, the index will exceed 6% when (put) put options start trading at higher prices.

USDT Tether (USDT/CNY) against USD/CNY | Source: OKXTether (USDT) is currently trading at a slight discount of 0.4% in China compared to the official USD/CNY exchange rate, indicating that the decline of Bitcoin has not triggered a wave of exits from the cryptocurrency market. This implies a shift towards stablecoins, possibly due to investors waiting for a reduction in macroeconomic instability.

The strong short-term correlation between U.S. Treasury bonds and Bitcoin, combined with stable BTC derivative indicators, suggests that professional traders are not overly concerned about a pullback to $104,000. From a technical perspective, the recent pullback does not signal a decrease in interest from traders, despite a net outflow of $347 million from Bitcoin ETFs traded on the exchange on May 29.

Mr. Teacher