BTC falls below 104,000! Trump: This drop has nothing to do with me, it's all China's/court's/Biden's fault.

Original author: jk

Reprinted: Daisy, Mars Finance

On May 30, the crypto market declined overall due to Trump's claim of a possible new round of tariff measures, with BTC briefly falling below $104,000 and mainstream cryptocurrencies generally decreasing. Investor sentiment has become cautious, and the market lacks clear upward catalysts in the short term.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies generally retrace.

According to Coingecko data, BTC is priced at $104,028, down 1.7% in the past 24 hours, with a 7-day decline widening to 3.8%, and the market capitalization falling to $2.07 trillion. Despite the trading volume remaining high at $39.3 billion, the price trend is still under pressure. ETH has seen a more significant decline, dropping 4% in 24 hours, currently priced at $2,520, with a market capitalization falling to $306.8 billion.

The decline of Solana has concentrated in the past 2 days, source: Coingecko

SOL has become the mainstream asset with the largest pullback, with a 24-hour decline of 5.4% and a weekly decline of up to 10.7%, currently priced at $157, breaking below the $160 mark. BNB is relatively resilient but also recorded a 2.5% intraday decline, currently priced at $662. XRP is priced at $2.16, down 4.7% in 24 hours and 7.3% for the week.

Dogecoin (DOGE) has become one of the weakest cryptocurrencies during this round of correction, falling 9.8% within the day and 15.1% over the week, currently priced at $0.1961. Although community enthusiasm remains, there are clear signs of capital outflow. In the absence of significant positive news or fundamental support, the crypto market is facing certain repair pressure in the short term. Currently, funds are leaning towards safe havens, flowing more into stablecoins or temporarily withdrawing to observe.

Reason analysis: Fluctuations in tariff policies have triggered risk aversion, putting short-term pressure on the market.

Recently, the Trump administration has implemented many measures regarding tariffs. Here is a summary according to the timeline:

May 29:

The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that most of the Trump administration's global tariff policies were illegal, determining that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) cited did not authorize the president to impose tariffs on nearly all imported goods. The court emphasized that, according to the Constitution, trade policy should be led by Congress rather than unilaterally decided by the president. The White House immediately filed an appeal and accused judicial intervention of hindering its economic diplomacy strategy, significantly increasing uncertainty in trade policy.

May 30:

The federal appeals court has issued an emergency ruling to suspend the lower court's decision, allowing the Trump administration to continue imposing tariffs during the litigation. (Although most of the tariffs have already been suspended under the agreement at this time) This reversal intensifies market concerns about policy reversals and enforcement capabilities, leading to signs of capital outflow towards stablecoins and dollar assets. A White House spokesperson publicly stated that the court's intervention is undermining the United States' negotiating leverage in trade talks and criticized the judge for "overreach."

Subsequently, the immediate cause of this market decline was another post on Truth Social, accusing China of "serious violations" of the mutual tariff exemption agreement reached in Geneva in the middle of this month. He said he had made brief concessions to "suspend punitive tariffs of up to 145 percent" to avoid a deterioration of the situation in China, but would consider renewing the pressure. The statement once again sent a signal of trade tension, and the market is worried about the new round of conflict between China and the United States. In the context of rising risk aversion, the crypto market has become one of the main directions of capital retracement, and mainstream currencies have generally fallen during the day.

Trump's negotiation style? Or is the trade war really coming?

Trump's negotiation style is characterized by "maximum pressure" and "strategic repetition," which seeks to gain negotiation advantages through high-profile threats and creating uncertainty. This strategy is frequently seen in his trade negotiations with China and Europe.

Previously, similar strategies also appeared in the trade relations between the US and Europe. After most tariffs had settled, Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, but after a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, he postponed the implementation date to July 9. The EU welcomed this and expressed a willingness to accelerate the negotiation process.

This cycle of "pressure—relaxation—pressure again" has led the market to develop the impression of Trump's negotiation strategy as "Trump Always Cowers" (TACO), meaning he often backs down after applying pressure. Although Trump strongly opposes this, claiming that his strategy is aimed at gaining a greater advantage in negotiations, the market remains skeptical.

In light of past experiences, although the current tensions in Sino-U.S. trade have intensified again, the market generally expects that both sides may eventually reach a new agreement through negotiations to avoid further escalation of the situation. Therefore, the market may experience fluctuations in the short term, but in the long run, serious trade conflicts are not expected.