Bitcoin Price Prediction: 104,000 USD – BTC Price Adjustment or Breakthrough?

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently at 104.322 dollars, trading within a narrow range and up 0.14% in the past 24 hours. But traders are not just looking at the charts; they are preparing for significant changes from US regulators. Starting from January 1, 2026, the IRS will require tracking costs on a per-wallet basis for cryptocurrency assets, including Bitcoin. This means maintaining accurate records and potentially altering trading strategies for the United States. In the past, traders used a consolidated basis to report taxes; however, the new IRS Form 1099-DA will require detailed tracking for each wallet, similar to traditional securities transactions. Although this will increase transparency, it may also raise compliance costs and slow down transaction activities, especially for retail and institutional investors with multiple wallets. Changes to the IRS cost basis rules will take effect in January 2025. Detailed wallet tracking is mandatory under the new rules. Increased tax compliance costs. Texas leads in Bitcoin reserves Texas lawmakers have passed SB21, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill (SBR), with a vote of 24-7 in the Senate, and the bill is now headed to Governor Greg Abbott's desk. If signed, Texas will be the third U.S. state to have an SBR law, following New Hampshire and Arizona, and the second state to invest state funds in cryptocurrency. The bill allows the Texas Comptroller to create a Bitcoin reserve fund from state investment funds, guided by an advisory committee. The amendments set a market capitalization threshold of 500 billion USD for qualifying assets and exclude staking options. This comes as Texas continues to dominate Bitcoin mining activity in the United States, with the highest hash rate. Texas will create a state-level Bitcoin reserve fund. A market capitalization threshold of 500 billion USD ensures stability. A mining-friendly environment reinforces Texas's position as a cryptocurrency hub. Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Level around $104,000 or lower? On Sunday, Bitcoin price predictions are mixed as BTC consolidates within a narrow range from $105,000 to $10,350. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is testing a downward trendline, with the 50-period EMA at $106,331 limiting the bullish move.

Doji at $104.894 is a sign of hesitation, while the lower high pattern indicates the potential for a continued downtrend. The MACD is declining, with a dark red histogram and an expanding gap below the signal line. Levels to pay attention to: Support: $103,501, $102,141 Resistance: $106,331, $107,914 The reversal at the level of 103.501 USD ( Hammer or Bullish Engulfing with the convergence of MACD) could trigger a move up to 106.331 USD or higher. Until then, be cautious. For traders, this is very simple: wait for a breakout or reversal. Without confirmation, it will be a downtrend.