Bitcoin will reach 250,000 USD this year: Arthur Hayes

Co-founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, predicts that the price of Bitcoin will more than double in the next six months, reaching a milestone of 250,000 USD, as American President Donald Trump shifts away from market-shaking tariff policies to pursue new fiscal measures.

According to Hayes, instead of continuing trade policies that risk stifling growth and reducing the purchasing power of Americans, President Trump will need to demonstrate that he "brings tangible benefits to the people" in order to support the Republican Party in the 2026 election.

"The government will accelerate the printing of money," Hayes said, referring to the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) — the independent agency responsible for managing the nation's money supply.

One of the fiscal stimulus measures mentioned by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is the possibility of restructuring the two government-sponsored mortgage giants: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — organizations that have been closely monitored since the financial crisis of 2008.

If these two organizations are allowed to issue public shares and raise capital again, it will inject cheap liquidity into the real estate market, Hayes analyzed. He believes that "increasing balance sheet leverage" will make home loans more accessible, thereby boosting construction, consumption, and supporting risk assets such as Bitcoin.

In addition, Hayes also pointed out that discussions regarding the exemption from the additional leverage ratio (SLR) for U.S. government bonds are a very positive signal. This exemption will allow U.S. banks to increase their purchases of bonds without being constrained by capital safety ratios.

"The fact that the American banking system can use unlimited leverage to purchase government bonds is clearly good news for the global financial market," he said.

Finally, Hayes predicts that the Trump administration will shift from tariffs to capital flow controls to support domestic production in a politically softer way. Specifically, instead of taxing imported goods, America may tax the assets of foreign governments — such as bonds, stocks, and real estate — originating from long-standing trade surpluses with America.

According to Hayes, this move will encourage countries to shift towards holding safe assets such as gold and Bitcoin, a key theme in his recent essay. In it, he also predicts that the price of Bitcoin will reach 1 million USD before 2028. Earlier this month, he made a more cautious forecast that Bitcoin would reach 150,000 USD by the end of this year — instead of 250,000 USD.

Investor billionaire Tim Draper also made a similar forecast this month, stating that cryptocurrency-friendly policies under Trump will give a strong boost to Bitcoin. Draper expects that many companies will adopt Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, contributing to pushing the price up to 250,000 USD this year.

While the U.S. Congress is reviewing bills regulating stablecoins and building a legal framework for various types of cryptocurrencies, Hayes also mentioned that Ethereum will have a strong rebound, with the potential to rise to 5,000 USD this year.

Han Xin