VanEck warns of a "brief but important period of volatility" for Bitcoin to adapt to the quantum threat.

The biggest risk to Bitcoin (BTC) when quantum computers reach a breakthrough threshold is the "transition period" required for the network to adapt and become quantum-resistant — according to Matt Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, in a post on June 2 on the X platform.

He noted that banks, technology platforms, and other blockchains also face similar cryptographic weaknesses in the post-quantum era. However, most can quickly update their server systems as soon as new standards are approved by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) (.

Sigel stated that organizations such as exchanges, custodians, and even Ethereum )ETH( could quietly integrate new signature algorithms based on lattice or hash due to their centralized control capabilities. In contrast, Bitcoin does not have that privilege.

Although he trusts in Bitcoin's long-term adaptability, he emphasized that protocol upgrades require consensus from the community — including miners, wallet developers, and node operators — a process that often takes many years, as seen with SegWit and Taproot.

Sigel warns that the biggest risk will be in the period from when the first reliable quantum proof appears until the Bitcoin network completes its transition to the new signature algorithm.

"Just one large-scale theft can shake the market and force the network to upgrade urgently," he noted.

He also said VanEck has started researching stocks related to the quantum computing sector, and the company's European arm has just launched the Quantum Technologies UCITS ETF.

Additionally, Sigel mentioned Elon Musk's recent statement that platform X will implement "Bitcoin-level encryption." According to him, Musk may be referring to two proposals BIP 151 and 324 — which encrypt peer-to-peer traffic but do not change the signature algorithm, indicating that the current security system of Bitcoin is still considered robust, at least until quantum computers actually reach the capability to break it.

Mr. Giáo