Is the price of XRP about to fall again?

Ripple (XRP) has recovered more than 40% since its April 7 bottom, reaching around $2.25 on June 4. However, the current price is still 37% lower than the peak reached in January 2025 of $3.4, raising concerns about whether XRP could continue to move higher.

XRP on-chain indicators signal a price peak

XRP's (NUPL) Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Index has entered the "Confidence – Denial" phase, a phase that usually signals a local price peak.

According to historical data, the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) this zone often coincides with times when the majority of holders are profitable, but lacks the consistency to hold through the fluctuations, leading to profit-taking and (bán ra) distribution.

! XRP XRP Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Index (NUPL) | Source: GlassnodeIn 2021, XRP also touched this same green zone before turning sharply down from around $2, unable to break through to a state of "real euphoria" in the market.

The current market sentiment reflects a similar scenario. If XRP cannot continue to maintain its current bounce back in the coming weeks, then historically, a price correction is entirely possible.

Investors are reducing risk with XRP investment products

According to data from CoinShares, demand from institutions for the XRP investment product appears to be weakening.

XRP ETP products recorded the largest weekly outflows, reaching $28.2 million in the week ending May 30, bringing the total outflow for the month to $56.6 million.

! XRP Net cash flow data of crypto funds (tính to 5) 30 | Source: CoinSharesOther large-cap altcoins such as ETH, SOL, and SUI recorded net inflows of $321.4 million, $1.5 million, and $2.2 million, respectively. This indicates that interest from institutions in XRP products is declining, which could put downward pressure on the price.

The descending wedge pattern of XRP warns of a potential price collapse of 22% to 38%

As of June 4th, XRP is in a correction phase after testing the upper trendline of the current descending wedge pattern.

Previous adjustments from this same resistance line have led to sharp declines, including a 45% drop in March, bringing the price back to the lower trend line of the wedge pattern.

XRP Weekly Price Chart | Source: TradingViewThe current fractal model increases the likelihood that XRP will bounce back to the level of 1.78 dollars, equivalent to a 22% decrease from the current price, while also aligning with the lower trend line of the wedge pattern and the 50-week EMA.

In the worst-case scenario, the price of XRP could drop to the peak of the wedge pattern at $1.45, which means a decrease of more than 38% from the current price.

However, the descending wedge pattern is often seen as a bullish reversal signal. Therefore, if the price clearly breaks out above the upper trendline of the pattern, then according to technical principles, the price could rise by an amount equal to the height of the wedge pattern.

! XRP XRP Price Chart Weekly | Source: TradingViewThat sets XRP's bullish target around $3.66 – a new record high – as the price breaks through resistance above the current trendline near $2.23.

Minh Anh