#ETH# 📉 **1. Core Analysis of ETH Today's Market**

1. **Current Price and Trend**
- **Latest Price**: $2,406 (24H drop of 7.91%), daily chart continuously closing in the red, 4-hour chart showing a downward channel.
- **Technical Indicators**：
- The MACD histogram continues to expand in negative values, indicating strengthening bearish momentum;
- KDJ value 34 (neutral weak), RSI reached 42 (close to oversold area);
- The MA10 crosses below the MA30, forming a death cross, indicating significant short-term pressure.

2. **Long and Short Battle Focus**
- **Negative Factors**: Slowing inflow of ETF funds, SEC's pending review of staking ETFs; Nasdaq index decline affecting the crypto market.
- **Bullish Factors**: BlackRock's holdings surpassed 1 billion USD, and whale addresses (holding 1k-10k ETH) increased their positions by 5.65% over the week, showing clear signs of accumulation on dips.

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### 📍 **2. Key Support and Resistance Levels**
| **Position** | **Type** | **Technical Basis** | **Importance** |
|----------------|----------|----------------------------------|------------|
| **$2,393** | Support | Bollinger Band Lower Band + March Historical Low Rebound Level | ★★★ |
| **$2,250** | Support | Fibonacci 50% Retracement + Institutional Holding Cost Line | ★★☆ |
| **$2,000** | Support | Bull-Bear Divide ($1.2 billion leverage long liquidation zone) | ★★★ |
| **$2,703** | Resistance | High 4 hours ago + Dense Selling Zone | ★★☆ |
| **$2,825** | Resistance | Weekly Neckline Level | ★★★ |
| **$3,013** | Resistance | Key valve to open up the $4,000 space after breakthrough | ★★★ |

> ⚠️ **Key Observation**: If it breaks below $2,393 within the day, it may accelerate the drop to $2,250; if it breaks above $2,703 with volume, it is likely to test $2,825.

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### ⚡ **3. 20x Leverage Positioning Plan**
**Applicable Scenarios**: Aggressive swing trading, targeting a rebound in the range of $2,393→$2,703 (profit and loss ratio ≥ 3:1)
**Core Formula**:
**Maximum Position = (Principal × 2%) / (Stop Loss Margin × Leverage)**

#### **Position Building Strategy (Taking 10,000U as an Example)**:
1. **First Warehouse Trial and Error (30%)**:
- **Entry**: around $2,410 (slightly above the current price)
- **Position**: $10,000 × 2% / (3% stop loss × 20 times ) = **3,333U**
- **Stop Loss**: $2,340 (-3%, prevent false breakdown support)

2. **Add position on pullback (50%)**:
- **Condition**: Price stabilizes at $2,393 after a pullback (1-hour closing price > support)
- **Increase Position**: Add 5,000U (Total position ≤ 8%)
- **Stop Loss Adjustment**: $2,380 (Protecting Initial Position Profit)

3. **Breakthrough Follow-up (20%)**:
- **Condition**: Volume breakout above $2,550 (4-hour trading volume > 1.5 times the previous high)
- **Chase Position**: 2,000U
- **Stop Loss**: $2,520 (tight to breakout level)

#### **Take Profit Strategy (Three-Stage Method)**:
- **Phase 1**: $2,600 flat 1/3 (profit ≈ 8%)
- **Stage 2**: $2,750 flat 1/3 (profit ≈ 14%)
- **Stage 3**: Move the remaining position stop loss to $2,680 (protect profit)