The HODL Bitcoin level reaches a 2-year peak: Will LTH decide the next bullish wave?

In the past two weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has continuously struggled to maintain its growth momentum. BTC has mainly fluctuated within a narrow range, with a low of around 104,000 and a high of nearly 107,000 dollars.

Although the market is in a hesitant phase, the confidence from long-term holders (LTH) remains unshaken. On the contrary, they are holding Bitcoin at the highest level in the past two years – a clear signal indicating a strong accumulation trend is taking place.

This record high HODL level reflects long-term optimism about the price appreciation potential of BTC, despite short-term fluctuations in the market.

Source: CheckonchainThe market's confidence in Bitcoin is further strengthened by the Reserve Risk index (Reserve Risk), which is currently still maintaining in the positive zone and reaching a level of 0.01 at the time of writing.

Source: CheckonchainThe evident consequence is that market motivation and behavior are gradually changing, especially within the long-term holder group. After a temporary distribution phase, this group has returned to an accumulation trend.

Data from Glassnode shows that large holders – those who often have a significant influence on price trends – are ramping up their accumulation of BTC again, signaling that they see growth potential in the near future and are preparing for a new breakout.

Source: GlassnodeCurrently, all wallet groups are showing different levels of accumulation, with the strongest buying activity coming from the wallet group holding 10–100 BTC and the group holding less than 1 BTC.

Both groups have reached the highest cumulative score – level 1, demonstrating a clear consensus in the behavior of hoarding.

In this context, the net position of long-term holders continues to rise sharply, now reaching 847,200 BTC – a significant increase from the 698,000 BTC just a week ago.

This stable increase is clear evidence that LTH is quietly accumulating, despite short-term fluctuations in the market.

Source: CheckonchainTraditionally, when retail and small investors intensify their accumulation, the circulating supply in the market tends to tighten – thereby creating upward price pressure over time.

This is an important factor that often lays the foundation for strong recoveries of Bitcoin in the past.

In addition, the growing confidence in the investment community shows that, although the current price action is somewhat cautious and choppy, the market still holds significant potential for an upward trend in the near future.

Can the accumulation increase sufficiently to trigger a new growth cycle for Bitcoin?

It is undeniable that the shift of large and long-term holders from distribution to accumulation is a positive signal for Bitcoin. This is a group of experienced investors who have a strong influence on market trends.

Their increase in position, while most other holders remain determined to hold, has put Bitcoin in a potential position ready for a breakout from the current accumulation zone. However, this positive movement has not yet truly spread to the rest of the market.

As long as retail investors and institutions do not participate in consensus, BTC is likely to continue being "locked" within a narrow range.

Currently, the buying power from large holders and LTH is only enough to absorb the selling pressure from short-term investors, causing the market to fall into a temporary state of balance – a period of calm before the next directional decision.

Minh Anh