Bitcoin Cycle Has Peaked: $270,000 Delayed Until 2026, According to Analyst

According to cryptocurrency analyst Dr. Cat (@DoctorCatX), Bitcoin's spectacular growth momentum in 2024-25 may have stalled just as many traders were expecting a breakout at the start of summer. In an extended thread published today, the technical expert focused on Ichimoku argues that the market has printed a "valid cycle peak" on the weekly chart and has now slipped into a neutral zone—potentially delaying the next decisive breakout until mid-July or otherwise at the latest until the first quarter of 2026. Bitcoin has not hit the bottom? "I have warned several times that we cannot be optimistic about the week before June 9," Dr. Cat reminded his followers. He noted that Chiko Span (CS) "had entered the candle" last week, stripping the weekly timeframe of its bullish trend even though the long-term monthly structure remains intact. "Since the monthly chart is bullish, everything is still bullish in the long term," he acknowledged, but the immediate bullish path has narrowed down to two clear windows. The first window opens for the week starting June 16. If Bitcoin starts the week above $99,881 and closes with CS breaking clear above the candlestick range, Dr. Cat believes that the "breakout, potentially up to $270,000", could explode. If the price opens below that threshold, a textbook CS trail pattern will take place, pushing the next breakout target to the week starting July 14 (hoặc the week immediately following đó). He explained that "Simply because these are the places where CS can make a clear breakout on candlesticks that end CS tracking."

Below $93,200—the current position of the weekly Kijun Sen—the bullish countdown is invalidated. "If the Kijun Sen at 93.2K is lost, we will consider a much later breakout," Dr. Cat warns, pointing out to traders a wide monthly window between November 2025 and April 2026 when the Kijun Sen itself is expected to slope upwards once again. Until then, he is "not confident that the bottom is in," marking $97–98 K as the short-term confluence zone where the daily Kumo cloud, weekly Tenkan Sen, and two-day Kijun Sen intersect. This analysis takes place at a sensitive time for sentiment. The all-time high of Bitcoin in April at over $111,999 has so far withstood several retests, and the funding rate on major derivatives venues has dropped from exuberance to merely positive. For Dr. Cat, this regulation aligns with the 17-period Kihon Suchi rhythm of Ichimoku: "The time cycle ... yields a valid high for the cycle on the weekly. I think at this point, it has clearly been printed," he wrote, implying that a new consolidation phase is statistically supported. The Altcoin season has even been further delayed. Altcoins face an even tougher battle. In a companion post analyzing the TOTAL3 ( market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum), Dr. Cat argues that "altcoins are not ready to pump weekly and need at least 1-2 months to do so in the best-case scenario." He cited four overlapping discount components: price below the weekly Kijun Sen, a negative Tenkan–Kijun crossover, a Chiko Span stuck below the "forest" of candles, and a Kijun Sen poised to decline next week. "The chance of a bullish altcoin explosion in June is about 5%," he concluded, noting an almost equal probability that Bitcoin alone could rise while "dominance destroys altcoins." The gloomy assessment extends to Ethereum and other large market caps. According to Dr. Cat, "the blindness... applies to anyone expecting a parabolic price surge on ATH in June for TOTAL3." He further stated that "the first legitimate opportunity for altcoin speculators" will not open until August, when the weekly CS will encounter thinner protrusions of historical candles.

The meaning of the market depends on whether Bitcoin can hold the higher timeframe pivot points long enough to fit those time windows. So far, the Kijun Sen at $93,200 acts as the dividing line between a controlled pause and a deeper pullback. A weekly close below it will "trigger" the backup line from November to April—essentially pushing any move towards Dr. Cat's $270,000 forecast into the next halving cycle.