Data Shows Traders Are Pessimistic About Bitcoin After High-Level Political Tensions

Bitcoin has fallen sharply in the past 24 hours, nearly hitting the $100,000 mark with a daily low of $100,984. This price volatility reflects the increased volatility across the crypto market following a public exchange on social media between US President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Their clash seems to have triggered a wave of risk-averse sentiment among traders. In response, the global crypto market capitalization fell by 4%, dropping from over $3.4 trillion yesterday to $3.33 trillion. Meanwhile, the broader market correction has not gone unnoticed in the derivatives data. Derivatives data show a surge in pessimistic sentiment. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the net trading volume of Binance, a metric measuring the difference between strong buy and sell orders, has plummeted from 20 million dollars to -135 million dollars in less than eight hours.

This signals a significant shift in sentiment as traders rush to hedge or speculate against downside risks in response to the unfolding news. Darkfost emphasizes that this is the largest net taker volume reversal observed on Binance this year. The sudden change reflects the speed of sentiment shifts as macro-level stories or influential figures dominate the headlines. In this case, the market reacts quickly to the perception of uncertainty, leading to a concentration of short positions and significant selling pressure. The situation has also led to a significant change in the funding rate of perpetual BTC futures. Funding on Binance turned negative after a brief positive trend, dropping from +0.003 to below -0.004.

This indicates that short sellers are willing to pay a premium to maintain their short positions, highlighting the increasing fear and the potential for overbetting on the downward trend.

Past Bitcoin patterns show potential for reversal. Traditionally, extremely negative funding rates have been followed by a strong rebound in the price of Bitcoin. Darkfost noted three previous events in which similar funding changes led to major price increases: October 2023 (BTC skyrocketed from $28,000 to $73,000 la), September 2024 (từ $57,000 to $108,000 la), and May 2025 (từ $97,000 to $111,000 la). Although not guaranteed, these models suggest that extreme pessimism can sometimes signal market turning points. The only recent exception occurred in March 2025 after the announcement of trade tariffs, leading to a continuous decline.

However, many traders are still closely monitoring signs of a short sell, as the price rises again forcing short sellers to take profits, amplifying the price increase.