Dogecoin faces a challenge: Will the level of 0.17 USD hold?

About 400 million DOGE has been transferred to the Binance exchange as the price falls back to the support level of 0.17 USD, equivalent to the level from a month ago. Currently, DOGE is still down 31% from its peak in May, and this move may reflect the participation of smart money looking to breakeven.

The big question right now is: Are they ready to sell off, or will FOMO ( the fear of missing out ) make them continue to hold?

This could determine whether DOGE can maintain the support level of 0.17 USD or if it might fall below that level.

The same scenario, but a different cycle – DOGE faces the sell wall

A deeper analysis of on-chain data shows that 30% of DOGE addresses are currently at a loss, with the purchase price above the market price of 0.18 USD at the time of writing.

More importantly, since DOGE fell below the support level of 0.20 USD, seasoned holders (HODLers) have begun to capitulate. In fact, over 800 million USD in actual losses have been recorded in just the past three days.

This wave of losses coincides with the decline of DOGE to a support level of 0.1680 USD, indicating that selling pressure is increasing.

The increase of 400 million USD into Binance only reinforces the view that investors are preparing to sell when there is an opportunity – if there is still an opportunity.

Source: GlassnodeHowever, it is not the steadfast investors who are worried. It is the short to medium-term holders who are feeling the pressure.

Short-term distribution reduces profit margins

When Dogecoin tests the resistance level of 0.25 USD, the NUPL index of short-term holders has turned negative, signaling a complete capitulation phase within this group.

This capitulation has increased the downward pressure, forcing DOGE below the important support level of 0.20 USD. This has also compressed profit margins and triggered a broader decline in investor confidence.

Source: GlassnodeIn fact, HODL waves also reinforce this picture. The supply ratio of Dogecoin in the 3-6 month group increased from 10% in March to 15.53% at the peak of the price surge. At the right moment, this group began to reduce their holdings, locking in profits or exiting near the breakeven level. Their ratio has decreased to 12.4% – a clear sign that distribution pressure is increasing.

In summary, when short-term holders capitulate, the larger DOGE community is being forced to realize these losses. Unless Dogecoin escapes this situation, breaking above the 0.25 USD level will remain a challenge. This makes the 0.17 USD support level more vulnerable than ever.

Mr. Giáo